Is China Preparing for War? What Does This Mean for the Stock Market and the Crypto Circle?

Recent discussions about "China stockpiling supplies" have been intensifying, sparking market concerns about "pre-war preparations." However, from a more rational perspective, this appears to be a long-term safety hedge in the context of escalating global geopolitical conflicts, rather than an immediate signal of imminent war.

China's key reserves are not solely military equipment but include food, energy, critical raw materials, and industrial intermediate goods. The common characteristic of these supplies is that, if subjected to sanctions or supply chain disruptions, they directly impact the basic functioning of society and industry. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the politicization of global supply chains has accelerated, and major powers establishing safety stocks in advance has become the norm—not unique to China.

For capital markets, this "safety-first" strategy tends to elevate risk premiums. The overall valuation of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks is under pressure, with markets favoring defensive sectors such as energy, resources, food, and state-owned enterprises, while consumer, real estate, and highly leveraged industries remain under continuous pressure.

In the crypto market, Bitcoin's logic tends to benefit relatively. Rising geopolitical risks, sanctions, and capital control expectations make BTC viewed by some funds as a hedge against systemic risks. However, it should be noted that if conflicts escalate in the short term, markets often experience liquidity shocks first, and Bitcoin may not be immune; its true safe-haven properties are usually reflected in the medium to long term.

Overall, this seems more like rational preparation in an era of high uncertainty rather than an imminent war signal.