Holiday market seems dull on the surface but is actually brewing with undercurrents. Ethereum's Bollinger Bands have compressed to historic extremes, and a trend reversal could occur within the next 72 hours. Main capital is quietly entering during the low trading volume window, while many retail investors are still debating whether to cut losses at the 2900 level. Today, we analyze three sets of data to see how this wave of market movement might unfold after the holiday.

**Technical Analysis:: Breakout Mechanism at the Edge of a Symmetrical Triangle**

The ETH daily chart has formed a standard symmetrical triangle. The upper trendline resistance is at $3050, and the lower support is at $2900. Historically, similar triangle breakouts tend to produce a roughly 15% unilateral move, with targets ranging from 2450 to 3500.

The four-hour chart is even more interesting. RSI and price are showing a bullish divergence at the bottom, and MACD bearish momentum is weakening, indicating that downward pressure is diminishing. However, there's a trap to watch out for—false breakouts. A common pattern is the price quickly breaking below 2900 to trigger stop-losses, then V-reversing back up. Such moves are particularly damaging to short-term traders.

**Market Sentiment: Contradictory Signals Amid ETF Outflows**

Ethereum ETFs recently saw outflows of $102 million, which sounds alarming. But on-chain data shows that large wallets holding over 10,000 ETH actually increased their holdings by 3%. These two facts are not contradictory—institutions are adjusting their year-end positions, but smart money is quietly accumulating at low levels.

The next key time point is the first week of January. If ETF inflows resume then, with daily inflows surpassing $200 million (comparable to the $295 million during Trump’s election in November last year), it would confirm that the main players have completed their bottom-fishing.

**Three Strategies for Retail Investors**

If you still hold positions, the first approach is to add gradually around 2900, betting that the bottom will hold. The second is to cut half of your position at 3050, locking in risk and observing the next move. The third is to stay flat and wait for a clear breakout direction before re-entering. There are no absolute right or wrong choices; the key is to select based on your risk tolerance.