Recently, I saw investors decide to exit after losing several months' worth of wages in a week due to misjudging Federal Reserve policy forecasts. This reminded me of a common phenomenon in the crypto market: many people treat policy expectations as a probability game.

To be blunt, most investors judge the Fed's moves by scrolling through news headlines. Seeing "rate cut signals" they buy aggressively; seeing "inflation rebounds" they cut their positions. Then they get repeatedly harvested because those headline news stories have already been digested by the market.

What is truly valuable is to position in advance—spotting early signs before expectations reverse. This requires understanding how expectations are formed, evolve, and eventually break down.

First, pay attention to the trajectory of the market's "consensus expectation" changes. Expectations are not static; they cycle from divergence → consensus → reversal. The first step I observe in expectation differences is to see whether the consensus on Federal Reserve policy among various parties has wavered. CME interest rate probability tools are basic data, but more crucially, analyze the latest research reports from top Wall Street institutions—big firms like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley often reflect the true thoughts of institutional players.

When the market is highly consensus bullish, it often means that good news has been largely priced in. Conversely, when the mainstream expectation shows its first signs of loosening, that is the window of maximum expectation difference. The volatility in the crypto market essentially involves chasing these expectation faces—mastering this rhythm allows you to turn passive hits into active strikes.