Looking at history can help you understand current investment opportunities. In ancient times, salt was extremely expensive. Why? Because energy technology was poor, processes were outdated, and it was monopolized and regulated. During the "liquor boiling and salt boiling" period, efficiency was extremely low. During the Spring and Autumn period, Guan Zhong established a salt monopoly, and by the Han Dynasty, Sang Hongyang even implemented a salt and iron monopoly. As a result, salt prices were six times higher than iron. Iron, being too dispersed to control, gradually exited the monopoly, and salt became the treasury of dynasties.

This story becomes interesting when applied to today's metal markets. Under the big backdrop of interest rate cuts, metal rotation follows a pattern: gold and silver → copper → aluminum → minor metals → processed products, one after another. The global manufacturing sector is about to rebound. The electrolytic aluminum cycle is currently experiencing three stages: "slowing rate of rate cuts - end of rate cuts - early stage of rate hikes." We are still in the first stage, and a fundamental and valuation inflection point is imminent.

Data is the most convincing. The copper-to-aluminum price ratio is now 4.4, reaching a new high. Over the next three years, both copper and aluminum will be in short supply. Conservatively estimating, if copper prices reach 88,000 yuan/ton, the acceleration point for copper-aluminum substitution is 3.5. Pushing this forward, aluminum prices could surge to 25,000 yuan/ton.

Why are we so optimistic about electrolytic aluminum? Three reasons stacked together: First, this sector has a dividend yield of up to 5%, making it a solid high-quality dividend asset; second, domestic capacity is capped, and overseas electricity is tight, giving it resource attributes; third, after a soft landing, global industrial prosperity is climbing from the bottom, and manufacturing has potential. The resonance of these three logical factors makes a valuation correction to 12X-15X a reasonable expectation.