In the commodities market, gold, copper, and crude oil each tell different stories.

Gold is the most sensitive. When dollar credit weakens, central banks print money recklessly, or geopolitical tensions escalate, gold jumps. It is a safe-haven asset, and its price reacts the fastest.

Copper's logic is different. It is widely used in electricity, infrastructure, home appliances, and new energy vehicles. When the economy improves, factories run at full capacity, and demand for copper surges. The key point is that copper mining expansion cycles are long, making short-term supply increases difficult. Therefore, copper prices are particularly sensitive to liquidity releases and economic recovery—when funds loosen, copper prices tend to soar first.

Crude oil is the mother of inflation; transportation and chemical production rely on it. Rising oil prices imply inflation expectations. But there's a detail: OPEC can influence supply by adjusting production, so oil prices usually lag behind actual demand. It takes a real economic upswing—busy transportation and full-capacity factories—for oil prices to catch up. This lag is very important.

Thus, the copper-oil ratio becomes an interesting signal. Copper represents growth expectations, while oil reflects inflation and cost pressures. When the copper-oil ratio rises—meaning the numerator (copper price) outperforms the denominator (oil price)—it indicates that growth expectations surpass cost pressures. The market perceives ample liquidity, optimistic growth prospects, and manageable costs. This moderate recovery environment is exactly what the stock market favors.

From the chart, the copper-oil ratio is rising from a bottom. It suggests that the "smart money" is already positioning for a recovery. Asset rotation may unfold as follows:

**Stage 1 (already happening):** Weakening dollar credit and expectations of rate cuts lead gold to lead the rally.

**Stage 2 (ongoing):** Capital outflows combined with industrial demand push copper prices higher due to constrained supply, causing the copper-oil ratio to rise. Equity assets should also follow upward.

**Stage 3 (potential risk):** Once the economy overheats, lagging resources like oil and gas will start catching up, and the copper-oil ratio will turn downward. The risk of runaway inflation emerges, the Fed may restart rate hikes, and stock market top pressures will follow.

The key is to recognize which stage we are in now and when the transition to the next stage will occur.