A recent interesting phenomenon in the crypto market is that institutions are starting to change their tune about Bitcoin's outlook for 2026.

At the beginning of the year, large financial institutions still aiming for a $300,000 target have quietly cut their expectations to $150,000. The reason is quite sobering: institutional buying through spot ETFs is far less aggressive than everyone imagined. What does this contrast indicate? It shows that the market is tired of hearing stories about institutions stepping in.

However, what's interesting is that there is still a fairly unified consensus in the industry about whether Bitcoin can reach $150,000 by 2026. Several analysis firms are pointing to this price level, and die-hard Bitcoin fans like Michael Saylor are also making similar predictions. But where do expectations diverge? Look at 2027. Some aggressive analysts believe it could hit $200,000, with some even daring to call for sky-high prices of $200,000-$250,000; conservative analysts think $110,000-$135,000 is more realistic.

Worth noting is that some analyses suggest Bitcoin's volatility is clearly converging, which may mean it is shedding the old pattern of "big waves every four years" and shifting toward a more stable long-term growth model. Of course, there are also skeptics of this view.

What's the bottom line? Institutions remain optimistic, but the atmosphere of blind optimism has indeed faded. The price prediction ranges have widened, indicating that everyone's certainty about the future is not as high.