2025-12-31 12:25:30

Recently, discussions about Bitcoin's 2026 trend have become interesting. Some major financial institutions were very optimistic before, but now they are noticeably more cautious.

A leading international bank once set a target price of $300,000, but recently cut it directly to $150,000. Their reasoning is straightforward — the institutional funds entering through spot ETFs are not as abundant as expected. This reflects a genuine cooling of institutional enthusiasm.

The mainstream industry forecasts are now more concentrated: around $150,000 by the end of 2026, then continuing to look toward $200,000 in 2027. A well-known industry expert also agrees with the $150,000 figure. He emphasizes that Bitcoin's volatility is significantly decreasing, which is completely different from the sharp fluctuations seen in the past.

However, there are still differences in the forecast ranges. Optimists (such as a certain well-known research institution) believe there is a chance to reach $200,000-$250,000; conservative analysts generally consider $110,000-$135,000 to be more realistic.

A noteworthy change is that, whereas analysts previously believed Bitcoin would follow the "four-year cycle" pattern, they are now gradually recognizing that it is moving toward a more stable and resilient growth model. This is not just a numerical adjustment; it reflects an increase in market maturity.

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CommunityLurker

· 4h ago

Uh... institutions cut from 300,000 directly to 150,000, and the contrast is a bit big. To put it simply, spot ETFs aren't as bloodsucking as everyone imagined. Is Bitcoin really becoming more "mature"? Or is everyone just scared and that's why they're saying this... But the consensus of 150,000 is quite interesting, it feels like everyone has lost the nerve to bet.

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AirdropHermit

· 4h ago

300,000 down to 150,000, the speed of this face slap... Is the enthusiasm of institutions really that limited? I thought spot ETFs would cause a big fuss, but it seems it's just so-so. --- Volatility decrease? No way, it still feels crazy as before, maybe my risk tolerance has increased haha. --- $150,000 sounds good, but I always feel like these analysts are betting on the same number. What if they all crash together? --- Finally someone realizes that the four-year cycle is no longer effective. The market is really growing up, and it's a bit less interesting now. --- The range from 110,000 to 250,000 is basically meaningless, but seeing them work together to approach 150,000 gives some confidence.

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MetaverseMortgage

· 4h ago

Institutions have cut directly from 300,000 to 150,000, isn't that a huge discrepancy? To be honest, it just means there's not that much money in spot ETFs. --- Is volatility decreasing? Hmm, it still feels like playing with numbers. The real test is still ahead. --- The consensus point of $150,000 is quite interesting, but I think the conservative range of $110,000-$135,000 is not out of the question either. --- The four-year cycle theory has been broken. Now they start talking about "market maturity"? It sounds like they're just changing their tune and making excuses. --- By the end of 2026, $150,000; in 2027, $200,000. It seems that this set of rhetoric aligns with what institutions are saying, but those who truly make money never rely on predictions. --- Honestly, I do believe that institutions' enthusiasm has cooled down a bit. After all, the hype isn't as intense as it was two years ago. --- Bitcoin has shifted from madness to steady growth. Whether this change is good or bad is hard to say. Does stability mean there are no opportunities? --- Those optimists are still dreaming of $200,000-$250,000. They might end up getting the biggest slap in the face.

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BasementAlchemist

· 4h ago

300,000 cut down to 150,000, hilarious, this is what is called the institutional steering wheel Institutional enthusiasm has indeed cooled down, spot ETF is not that attractive anymore Volatility has decreased, which is a bit awkward... losing the thrill $150,000 might really be the ceiling The four-year cycle has broken, once mature, it becomes boring Optimists dare to call for 200,000-250,000, I don't believe it Once again, the expectation of cuts has been priced in, I am numb to it Stable growth sounds good, but the opportunity to make money has also decreased Institutional funds are not as much as expected, that’s the real truth

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ForkMonger

· 4h ago

ngl the 150k consensus is just institutional cope at this point... they cut expectations in half and call it "market maturity" lmao

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ConsensusBot

· 4h ago

300,000 cut down to 150,000, the big banks are really scared now. Spot ETF didn't attract as much money as expected, indicating that institutions are not truly believers, just here to cut the leeks. When institutions cool off, retail investors should be even more cautious. The 150,000 consensus doesn't mean much; I'm just worried it might be another trap to lure more people in. Lower volatility? That's actually more terrifying. A coin circle without volatility isn't really a coin circle; it would just become a commodity. A four-year cycle flipping into stable growth—this logic is just a self-justification. No matter how beautiful the predictions are, that's all they are; if it’s going to fall, it will fall.

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orphaned_block

· 4h ago

300,000 down to 150,000, the contrast is really incredible... Where are the supposed institutional funds? Feels like everyone is just bragging. Does a decrease in volatility mean maturity? I feel like no one dares to play anymore. If it really drops to 150,000 by 2026, should I hold or reduce my position now? My mind just can't keep up. The prediction range from 110,000 to 250,000 is so wide, it's basically meaningless... Breaking the four-year cycle feels like the entire logic has fallen apart. Maybe I should just keep watching. Institutional enthusiasm has really cooled down. Where did that momentum go? Just this?

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