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The Federal Reserve meeting minutes have just been released, and the "internal war" among officials has also come to light.

How intense was the disagreement this time? Out of 12 voters, 3 opposed, which is a significant proportion. One faction is worried about a resurgence of inflation, while the other is anxious about worsening employment data. Powell publicly stated that "interest rates are at the right level," but the meeting records show that most members are actually undecided—they fear rising unemployment and a spike in prices.

This internal division directly reflects the outlook for interest rates next year. Officially, it is said that there might only be one more rate cut in 2026, which sounds conservative, right? But in the market, traders are much more optimistic—they generally bet that the chance of a rate cut before March exceeds 50%, and some aggressive traders are betting on a sharp 50 basis point cut.

The reality is, the rate has already been lowered to 3.50%-3.75% in December. How much room is left for further cuts?

The key variable is coming. The Fed will meet again on January 27, but even more exciting is the end of the month—Trump is set to announce the new Fed Chair. The two leading candidates have very different styles: Waller, 55, a former official who emphasizes policy independence; and Haskett, 63, a former Trump advisor advocating for aggressive rate cuts. A change in leadership could completely rewrite the policy pace.

What is your judgment? Will the new chair immediately open the floodgates for easing? Or will the rate cut expectations once again fall short?