Soybean Export Demand Surges Despite Price Weakness in Tuesday Trading

Soybeans faced selling pressure during Tuesday’s session, with front-month contracts retreating 1 to 2 cents as traders reassessed positions. The cmdtyView national average cash soybean price declined 3 cents to $9.80 3/4, reflecting the broader bearish sentiment that gripped the complex.

Export Demand Tells a Different Story

While prices sagged, the real news emerged from the USDA’s export sales report. Soybean sales for the week of December 11 reached 2.396 MMT—a remarkable marketing year high and the strongest performance in over 12 months. This volume, representing a 68.3% increase compared to the same week last year, sits comfortably within the trade’s estimated range of 1.8-2.9 MMT.

China emerged as the dominant buyer, purchasing 1.38 MMT during that single week. The cumulative known sales to China have now reached 6.2 MMT when accounting for daily transactions from recent weeks. This sustained Asian demand underscores the persistent international appetite for U.S. soybeans despite domestic price pressures.

Soybean Complex Shows Mixed Signals

The soybean meal sector outperformed, with futures advancing $1.10 to $2.50 per ton on Tuesday, demonstrating strength in the protein component. Soy meal sales data revealed exceptional activity at 616,453 MT, substantially exceeding the trade’s estimated range of 275,000 to 550,000 MT.

Soy oil futures, by contrast, surrendered 25 to 39 points, suggesting softer demand in the oil segment. Bean oil sales came in at the lower end of expectations at 8,660 MT, within the 5,000 to 24,000 MT range.

Managed Money Repositioning Pressures Prices

Commitment of Traders data released Tuesday afternoon revealed managed money continuing to lighten their positions. These traders cut their net long position by an additional 32,560 contracts in the week ending December 16, reducing holdings to 147,778 contracts. This ongoing fund liquidation has contributed to the downward pressure on futures prices despite robust underlying export demand.

Contract Settlements

January 2026 soybeans closed at $10.51 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents, with nearby cash beans at $9.80 3/4, down 3 cents. March 2026 soybeans settled at $10.63 3/4, declining 1 1/4 cents, while May 2026 soybeans finished at $10.74 1/4, also off 1 1/4 cents.

The divergence between firm export demand and weakening futures prices suggests traders are weighing near-term technical pressures against longer-term demand fundamentals, leaving the complex in a state of tension heading into year-end trading.