January 1, 2026 (13:45, UTC+8) Core conclusion: The market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with sentiment leaning towards panic, and liquidity is relatively low. In the short term, it is advisable to adopt a wait-and-see approach or lightly take profits and buy the dips.

I. Key Market Overview (24h)

- Global cryptocurrency market cap: $2.96 trillion, down 0.74% over 24h
- Fear and Greed Index: 31 (Fear)
- Bitcoin (BTC): approximately $87,448.98, down 1.01% over 24h; trading range of $87,000-$89,000, slightly weak in the short term, support at $86,000, resistance at $89,000
- Ethereum (ETH): approximately $2,971.73, up 0.10% over 24h; consolidating between $2,950-$3,050, awaiting a breakout
- Other major coins: SOL, XRP, LTC fluctuate slightly; LEO up nearly 6% over 24h; NIGHT down over 10%

II. Key Drivers and Risks

- Liquidity: Year-end liquidity contraction, institutional rebalancing and leverage unwinding continue to impact, short-term volatility may increase
- Technicals: BTC has declined for three consecutive months, with a potential rebound window in January; ETH daily Bollinger Bands are tightening, with clear compression
- Risks: Market sentiment remains fearful, volatility may amplify; there could be downward movement in the first half of the year, BTC should watch for support at $65,000

III. Trading Recommendations

- Positioning: Light holdings, avoid heavy bets on one side
- Strategy: Sell high and buy low within the $86,000-$89,000 range for BTC; monitor $2,950 support for ETH, if it breaks above $3,050, consider small long positions; otherwise, reduce holdings
- Risk Control: Strict stop-loss, control leverage; prioritize mainstream coins, stay away from small-cap altcoins

IV. Follow-up Focus

- Institutional rebalancing of funds in January may trigger a rebound
- Impact of regulatory policies and macroeconomic data on risk asset preferences
- Whether BTC can hold above $89,000, and ETH can break through the $3,050 range

Note: Cryptocurrency trading is not legally protected in our country and involves high risk. Please trade rationally.