Last week, the US unemployment data showed an abnormal trend, dropping to 199,000. On the surface, this appears to be a sign of a stable labor market. However, Citigroup's analysis points out that there may be a hidden "magic" behind this—seasonal adjustments that could delay the true situation until January next year, when the unemployment rate might suddenly jump to 4.7%.

How significant is the authenticity of this data for the market? We need to take a closer look:

**Risks of Reversal in Rate Cut Expectations**
The current market expectations for a Fed rate cut may be overly optimistic. If the employment data is indeed fine, the Fed will lack sufficient reasons to cut rates, making liquidity tightening highly likely. This will be a real test for high-volatility assets.

**Chain Reaction in Crypto Assets**
BTC and ETH are becoming increasingly correlated with the US stock market, meaning that macro risks, once they emerge, will make it difficult for the crypto market to remain unaffected. The current optimism surrounding ETF hype and halving narratives could quickly dissipate when liquidity recedes. Gains lacking fundamental support are most vulnerable to being wiped out during market corrections.

**Turning Point in Crisis**
It is also worth noting that this situation could reverse: if revised data confirms worse unemployment, the market might rebound sharply; if the real unemployment rate remains high, the crypto market could instead serve as a hedge asset due to inflation or stagflation expectations.

The current strategy should be to stay cautious—manage positions carefully and leave room for potential sharp fluctuations, avoiding being swayed by short-term market movements.