2026-01-01 18:21:36

When I looked up Japan's economic data in 1995, I really paused for a long time. That year, Japan's economy reached $5.55 trillion, surpassing the combined total of other Asian countries at $4.19 trillion — calling it "Asia's top-tier economy" is no exaggeration, and its stability far exceeded that of any emerging markets at the time.

But what about 2025? Japan's economy has fallen to $4.28 trillion. How painful is this number? It even trails behind the combined $4.76 trillion of Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Fujian in China. Thirty years in total, from being the economic top dog to a regional supporting role.

What's more ironic is that this decline process is almost a template for some investors in the crypto space.

**Why did Japan fall into this trap?**

In the early 2000s, the US trade war hit. Japan's stock market and real estate market collapsed directly. The rational choice at that time was to adjust strategies and seek new growth drivers. But what did Japanese companies do? Either cling to traditional manufacturing and bear the cost pressures, or desperately go overseas to build factories and avoid tariffs. In the end, they couldn't escape the cycle of leverage.

Adding to the woes was the demographic structure. An accelerating aging population, a sharp decline in young labor, and shrinking consumption capacity. In data terms — not only did there be no rebound, but the decline actually accelerated.

**This closely mirrors the logic of some crypto investors, to an alarming degree.**

How many people see Bitcoin and Ethereum entering a downtrend and still throw all their assets into those small third- and fourth-tier coins, fantasizing about turning around from coins with thousands of times multiplier? When regulatory policies tighten clearly, some still leverage up and "place a bet," only to be crushed by the market. Isn't this just a contemporary version of Japanese companies — doubling down on a track that’s already lost?

The only difference is, Japan's decline took 30 years, while a crypto bear market might only last 30 months.

BTC1,18%

ETH1,22%

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GateUser-7b078580

· 10h ago

The data shows the pattern right there, although most people can't see it... The comparison of 30 years vs. 30 months really hits home. Once a pattern is observed, people start to repeat their bets. Under an irrational mechanism, no one can escape. Let's wait a bit longer; the historical low hasn't been reached yet.

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MergeConflict

· 10h ago

Japan's last 30 years have truly been a textbook example of a cautionary tale... stubbornly sticking to old tracks, leveraging up to gamble with life, now it's the crypto world’s turn to reenact this drama. The key is that we are watching all of this happen, and there are still people going all in on small coins. I really can't hold on anymore.

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LayerZeroEnjoyer

· 10h ago

Japan's past 30 years are a living warning; clinging to old things will only lead to being abandoned by the times. The group in the crypto space that keeps gambling on small coins really hasn't learned their lesson.

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