Don't believe in the four-year cycle!

The recent rise of Bitcoin and Ethereum is a false breakout, and caution is needed for a pullback risk.

Recently, Bitcoin has been testing around $89,000, and Ethereum has been attempting to break the $3,000 level. These movements are essentially false breakouts. Both assets lack core support: Bitcoin repeatedly tested the $90,000 resistance level without success, quickly falling back to the $87,000 range after rebounds, without forming an effective stabilization; Ethereum has attempted to break the $3,000 key level multiple times, but trading volume has always shrunk, and the moves have not been confirmed by Bitcoin's trend.

Looking at past examples, at the end of 2025, Ethereum briefly broke through $2,980, seemingly opening an upward channel, but then all gains were retraced within four hours, returning below $2,950 to oscillate. During the breakout, DeFi lock-up volume also declined, confirming weak buying interest. Similarly, in early 2026, Bitcoin rebounded to a high of $89,000 but failed to break through the 365-day moving average resistance, and spot premiums continued to decline, indicating insufficient institutional participation to sustain the trend.

The core features of false breakouts are clearly evident in this round of movement: price breaking key levels without volume support, lack of confirmation from related asset trends, and quick pullbacks without establishing a stable breakthrough. This suggests that the short-term market remains in a consolidation phase, and blindly chasing highs may easily lead to a pullback trap.