Daily Report #我的2026第一条帖

These days, the market is still in holiday mode, with low trading volume and liquidity. The new trading year will only begin next week.

Currently, everyone is most concerned about whether the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates. 2026 is also a year of strategic competition between the Federal Reserve and Trump.

At present, the probability of a rate cut in January is only 14.9%. If there is no rate cut in January, we will have to wait until the March meeting.

Before the Federal Reserve truly loosens monetary policy, the market will continue to remain volatile.

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve injected $31.5 billion into the market through overnight repurchase operations, a new high since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Currently, U.S. debt has exceeded $38 trillion. Under such heavy debt pressure, maintaining high interest rates is equivalent to self-destruction; just the interest alone could consume most of the fiscal revenue.

This will force the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy to dilute the debt.

From the data, BTC chip distribution remains relatively stable, with little selling pressure. $87,000 has accumulated 900,000 BTC.

Between $84,000 and $85,000, there are also buy orders for 940,000 BTC.

This is why Bitcoin tends to rebound quickly whenever it drops near $85,000 recently.

Tether has recently bought 8,888.88 BTC, worth $780 million, marking a major move to close out 2025.

Currently, their address holds 96,185 BTC, with an average cost of $51,117, and an unrealized profit of $3.524 billion. It is the fifth-largest Bitcoin wallet in the world.

On the ETH side, 25 listed companies have joined the strategic reserve of Ethereum. Their total holdings amount to 6.035 million ETH.

Among them, BitMine holds 4.06 million ETH, making it the absolute leader. Followed by SharpLink with 859,000 ETH and The Ether Machine with 496,000 ETH.

Additionally, the total balance of Ethereum spot ETFs is currently 6.052 million ETH. Among them, BlackRock holds the largest share with 3.47 million ETH, while the other firms are less prominent.

In other words, the ETF and treasury companies together absorbed a total of 12.05 million ETH of selling pressure in this cycle. Without them, Ethereum’s price performance would likely be worse.