Galaxy predicts major changes in the crypto market by 2026: 50 types of altcoin ETFs, SEC facing lawsuits, DEX accounts for over 25%

Galaxy Digital research team released their 2026 crypto market forecast at the beginning of the new year, covering multiple dimensions such as Bitcoin price, regulatory policies, product innovation, and more. This forecast not only depicts a highly volatile price outlook but also reveals a deep trend of market transition from “price narrative” to “practical value.” Among the most notable insights are the expectations for explosive growth in altcoin ETFs, SEC regulatory risks, and market structure reshaping.

Bitcoin Price: Market Uncertainty Behind a Wide Range

Short-term Fluctuations and Long-term Optimism Diverge

Galaxy’s price forecast exhibits a clear “dual expectation” characteristic. For June 2026, options market pricing shows a 50% probability each for $70,000 and $130,000; for the end of 2026, $50,000 and $250,000 are also equally likely. This broad range reflects deep market uncertainty about short-term trends.

According to relevant information, Bitcoin hit a historical high of $126,080 in October 2025 before experiencing a correction, with current trading prices around $90,048. Until Bitcoin firmly re-establishes the $100,000 to $105,000 level, short-term downside risks remain. However, Galaxy remains optimistic about the long-term outlook, expecting Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. This shift from short-term caution to long-term optimism reflects institutional confidence in the fundamentals of the crypto market.

Logic Supporting Price Predictions

Relevant news indicates that the crypto market will enter an “industrialization phase” in 2026, with capital competition entering a stage of both stock and incremental growth. New application scenarios such as stablecoins, AI proxy payments, and real-world assets (RWA) are becoming new pricing anchors. This means Bitcoin’s value support is shifting from a simple “scarcity narrative” to “practical demand,” providing a more solid foundation for long-term price increases.

Regulation and Product Innovation: Systemic Changes in Market Structure

Explosive Growth of Altcoin ETFs

Galaxy predicts that the US will launch over 50 spot altcoin ETFs and an additional 50 crypto ETFs (excluding single-asset spot products). This signifies an unprecedented expansion of the US crypto product lineup. Meanwhile, net inflows into spot crypto ETFs are expected to exceed $50 billion, injecting significant incremental capital into the crypto market.

This forecast reflects an important market shift: from the “dual oligopoly” era of Bitcoin and Ethereum to a diversified product ecosystem. More compliant investment tools for altcoins mean more choices for institutional investors and risk diversification across the market.

SEC Regulatory Risks

Galaxy predicts that the SEC will face lawsuits from traditional market participants or industry organizations due to innovation exemptions. This highlights a subtle regulatory reality: US regulators are easing approval attitudes toward crypto products, but this relaxation also challenges traditional financial interests. The SEC may face pressure from two directions—on one side, the crypto industry demands more innovation exemptions; on the other, traditional financial institutions question the new rules.

Reconstruction of Market Infrastructure

DEX, Stablecoins, and New Application Scenarios

Galaxy forecasts that DEXs (decentralized exchanges) will account for over 25% of total spot trading volume, and Polymarket’s weekly trading volume will continue to exceed $1.5 billion. Both predictions point to the same trend: decentralized and specialized applications are eroding the market share of traditional centralized exchanges.

Additional information further suggests that stablecoins will become the “internet’s basic settlement layer.” In 2025, stablecoin trading volume reached $9 trillion, rivaling Visa and PayPal. By 2026, stablecoins will evolve from being trading intermediaries to core tools for cross-border settlement, remittances, and payroll payments. Galaxy even believes their on-chain trading volume will officially surpass the US ACH automated clearing system.

Deep integration of AI and crypto payments is also creating new demands. Google has led the development of AI proxy payment protocol standards, meaning AI entities will conduct high-frequency, micro-value machine-to-machine payments via stablecoins. This new scenario creates unprecedented demand for crypto payments.

Crypto Companies Going Public

Galaxy predicts that over 15 crypto companies will conduct IPOs or upgrade their listings in the US. This reflects the evolution of the crypto industry from a startup ecosystem to a mature industry. More crypto firms entering the public markets indicate industry recognition from traditional capital markets.

Overall Market Outlook

Galaxy’s forecast sketches a systemic change in the market landscape. It is not simply about “price fluctuations,” but a transition from “youthful turbulence” to “mature stability.” Improvements in regulatory environment, expansion of product lines, infrastructure development, and application scenario growth are working together to lay the foundation for the next phase of crypto market growth.

It is noteworthy that Galaxy Digital received 2,000 Bitcoin (worth about $180 million) on January 3, which also reflects ongoing institutional optimism toward Bitcoin at this critical moment.

Summary

Galaxy’s 2026 forecast presents a multi-dimensional, systemic view of market changes. In the short term, BTC may experience wide-ranging price volatility, but the long-term target of $250,000 reflects institutional optimism. More importantly, the explosive growth of altcoin ETFs, easing SEC regulations, the rise of DEXs and stablecoins, and the emergence of AI payment scenarios all point in one direction: the crypto market is shifting from “speculation-driven” to “application-driven,” from “price narrative” to “practical value.” Whether these predictions will materialize by 2026 will depend on policy implementation, product deployment, and actual application progress.