Retail investor sentiment heats up, $92K becomes a FOMO trap

The first week of the new year, the sentiment in the crypto market has clearly warmed up. Santiment analyst Brian Quinlivan pointed out in his latest analysis that retail investors are showing positive emotions on social media, but this optimism may hide risks—if Bitcoin rapidly surges to $92,000, FOMO among retail investors could flood in on a large scale, potentially signaling a market top. Currently, BTC is priced at $89,826, just under $2,300 away from this key psychological level. This warning deserves serious attention.

The Double-Edged Sword of Retail Investor Sentiment

According to Santiment’s social media data, market participants entering 2026 are showing a clear emotional divide. On one hand, the crypto market has risen from the “Extreme Fear” state since December 12 to the “Fear” stage, with the sentiment index rising from an extremely low level to 29 points, the highest in 21 days. On the other hand, two very different voices have emerged within the market:

• Some investors, having failed to bottom out during the fear cycle or being trapped at high levels, have completely lost confidence in the market
• Others have successfully positioned at lows, are already enjoying small profits, and are optimistic about the market

Quinlivan emphasizes that whether the market can go higher depends on whether retail investors can remain rational. He clearly states, “We need retail investors to maintain a certain level of caution, some pessimism, and some impatience.” This may sound contradictory, but the logic behind it is very clear: when market excitement is too high, the crypto market often moves in the opposite direction of most expectations.

Specific Triggers for FOMO Risks

Quinlivan specifically points out that $92,000 is a key psychological level. If Bitcoin quickly climbs to this level, the true reactions of retail investors will be fully exposed. He warns, “If retail investors start flooding in because of ‘Bitcoin rising,’ that will be a negative signal.”

This judgment is based on an important observation: retail frenzy in the cryptocurrency market often occurs near historical highs or cycle peaks. When such sentiment appears, historical data shows the market often declines afterward. In other words, FOMO itself is a warning light for a market top.

Typical Characteristics of Market Bottoming

Although Quinlivan expresses concern about the surge of FOMO sentiment, he also points out that the current positive sentiment may just be a “normal rebound after the holiday return.” Overall, there are signs of a bottoming process:

• It has been in the fear zone for 8 consecutive weeks, longer than during the April 2025 crash
• There is a clear divergence among market participants, a typical feature of bottoming phases
• Some funds have quietly started to enter the market, and holders are holding firmly
• Although altcoin trading activity has decreased, this reflects the market entering a “BTC season”

Summary

The current market is at a delicate balance point. The improvement in retail sentiment is a fact, but whether this can translate into a healthy market rise depends on whether retail investors can stay rational. $92,000 is not just a price target but also an emotional test. If BTC rapidly surges to this level and triggers widespread FOMO, it could instead signal that risks are approaching. The best scenario is a slow, gentle rise in the market, giving retail investors enough time to make rational decisions rather than being swept away by emotions. This is also why Santiment’s analysts emphasize the need for “a certain degree of pessimism”—at this stage, excessive optimism is often more dangerous than caution.