Short positions closed early with small loss, then closed later with a big loss—Yili Hua's 2026 bull market warning interpretation

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua expressed his views this morning on social media, believing that the 2026 bull market is a foregone conclusion. Currently, the bears have no way out—early closing results in small losses, while late closing leads to large losses. This statement reflects not only a shift in market sentiment but also a fundamental clash of investment philosophies: value and trend investors are positioning themselves, while speculative traders face the risk of being crushed by history.

Core Perspective: Value Investing vs. Speculative Trading

Yi Lihua emphasizes that Warren Buffett and Duan Yongping are respected because they profit from value and trend investing, not from gambling. This viewpoint points to a key market divergence—when a bull market is established, those who follow the trend will make money, while those betting against it will inevitably lose.

His judgment is straightforward: those still bearish in the market “are either all talk or cannon fodder.” This is not emotional venting but based on a simple logic—when a clear trend is in place, the timing of bears closing their positions determines their losses. Losing early means less, losing late means more. This is the brutal reality of the market.

Support from Market Reality

Yi Lihua’s view is not baseless. According to the latest news, the market has experienced over a month of oscillation, a process essentially involving repeated battles between bulls and bears. But on-chain data and capital flows show that the bulls are gradually gaining the upper hand.

Capital is positioning, not waiting

The movements of whales best illustrate this. According to on-chain monitoring, a large whale made approximately $1.38 million in profit over the past week. Out of 34 trades, 24 were profitable, with a win rate of 70.59%, and net gains exceeding $5.3 million. More importantly, this whale has been increasing its holdings of altcoins—going all-in with $8 million across projects like PUMP, XPL, IP, and others, using leverage of 3-10x on multiple long positions.

This is not waiting on the sidelines; it’s preparing for the gradual diffusion of the bull market. According to market patterns, mainstream coins will lead the rally first, followed by quality altcoins, with Meme coins partying last. Capital is positioning itself according to this rhythm.

Yi Lihua’s Practical Actions

Consistency in words and actions is most convincing. Yi Lihua is steadily increasing his ETH holdings, including controlled borrowing. He is targeting a range of $1,000 to $2,000 for ETH in the first half of 2025—this is a typical trend investment approach, not concerned with hundreds of dollars of volatility, because the goal is to capture the big trend.

Currently, ETH is priced at $2,969.22, challenging the $3,000 psychological level on the technical chart. Yi Lihua’s logic for increasing his position is clear: this is the pre-bull phase, and the upside for mainstream coins remains substantial.

The Final Divergence Before the Bull Market

Yi Lihua’s perspective essentially describes a market divergence process. After long-term oscillation, the battle between bulls and bears has been decided; now the question is when bears will admit defeat and how much.

From a market structure perspective, bulls already hold psychological and capital advantages. The bears’ liquidation is not a question of “if” but “when.” Early bears who close positions will have manageable losses, while those who wait will be forced into short squeezes, pushing them into deeper losses. That’s why he says “late closings will result in huge, miserable losses”—not a prediction, but a conclusion based on inevitable market dynamics.

After over a month of bull-bear battles, the market’s various players are about to “stand tall and proud.” Behind this statement is an observation: the main participants have already shifted their positions, and now it’s just a matter of time to see the outcome.

Summary

Yi Lihua’s viewpoint reflects an important turning point in the current market. Not all opinions can be simply summarized as “bullish” or “bearish”; more importantly, it’s about understanding the essence of investing—those who follow the trend make money, while those betting against it lose money.

The expectation of a 2026 bull market has shifted from consensus to action. Capital is positioning, mainstream coins are gearing up, and altcoins are preparing. Bears are still making their final efforts, but the cost of this effort will increase over time. That’s why early closings result in small losses, while late closings lead to huge, miserable losses—the market always teaches those who oppose the trend in the most brutal way.