Forecast of Market Turmoil Escalation: Insider Trading Regulation Bill on the Horizon

TokenSherpa · 2026-01-03T21:40:11+00:00

The U.S. Congress plans to introduce a bill in 2026 to prohibit government officials and federal employees from engaging in prediction market trading using non-public information. The move aims to enhance compliance and respond to recent public concerns over insider trading incidents.

TokenSherpa

2026-01-03 21:40:11

Abstract generation in progress

【Crypto World】The rapid growth of prediction markets is finally about to be regulated. Some US Congress members are drafting new legislation, planning to introduce a bill in 2026 with a straightforward core goal—prohibiting government officials and federal employees from using non-public government intelligence to trade in prediction markets.

The trigger for this action is very practical. Recently, an account on Polymarket made over $400,000 by correctly predicting the arrest of a high-ranking Venezuelan official. What’s truly shocking is that this account started acting just a few hours before the official announcement. This kind of “predictive insight” operation can easily provoke public opinion, regardless of the market.

Currently, leading prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket claim to have already banned insider trading through their trading rules. However, it’s clear that self-regulation alone is not enough; legal measures are needed to close this loophole. If this legislation progresses, it is expected to have a profound impact on the compliance standards of the entire prediction market industry.

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GasFeeCryBaby

· 01-06 01:16

Coming again to regulate us? That's really outrageous. Now the government is going to play the prediction market.

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fren.eth

· 01-04 13:10

Another big show of harvesting the leeks is about to unfold. It's true that the government is now targeting the prediction market... Wait, how did this account just happen to make 400,000? I was wondering how some people always manage to hit the right timing—turns out they’re all insiders. Refund the money, rn! I can't believe the rhetoric from Kalshi and Polymarket. Relying on self-discipline? Haha. Now, let's see if the bill in 2026 can really put an end to this matter. Let's wait and see.

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TokenDustCollector

· 01-03 22:02

Here we go again, more regulation. If this continues, predicting the market will become meaningless. Everyone wants to cut the leeks, but only they can use insider information? Double standards are just perfect. That Venezuela order on Polymarket, it's outrageous, acting hours in advance... Legal restrictions are good, that’s fair, otherwise everyone who plays will lose. Submitting only in 2026? The lettuce has already withered, it should be done now. Platform self-discipline? Haha, just wait and see, it's all empty talk anyway. If this bill really passes, will it directly kill the prediction market? Wait, do those already earned funds need to be recovered? That’s the real issue.

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ForkInTheRoad

· 01-03 21:52

Another new bill to cut leeks, and we have to wait until 2026? --- Damn, this is real insider trading, more blatant than Wall Street --- Polymarket is indeed amazing; making 400,000 just a few hours in advance, how many insiders are involved? --- Platform self-discipline? Ha, just joking. Without legal constraints, they simply can't control these people --- One bill can't change much; the key is who enforces it and how it is regulated --- It's already 2024, and they're only thinking about legislation. Prediction markets have been rotten for a long time --- The problem is that information asymmetry exists inherently; simply banning officials from trading is just a superficial fix --- Compliance, regulation, insider trading... How can these work in crypto? It's too naive --- That's why decentralized prediction markets exist—because no one can really control them

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LightningHarvester

· 01-03 21:48

I actually want to know how this 400,000 was credited; people have been whispering about it for a long time. Legislation again? The pace in 2026 is really sluggish. People are already probing the golden edge. To be honest, platform self-discipline has never been reliable; we need legal backing. The inside scoop is just inside info; anyway, everyone wants to be a "seer and early bird." I just want to know how to avoid getting cut. I envy that guy who made 400,000 in four hours—that's the true essence of market prediction. I'm just worried that passing the law will make things even more complicated, and ordinary players will find it even harder.

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LiquidatedDreams

· 01-03 21:47

400,000 USD was fully committed a few hours in advance. Isn't this obviously someone leaking information? Platform self-discipline? Haha, it's just waiting to be reprimanded by regulators.

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DAOdreamer

· 01-03 21:44

Damn, this directly hits the core issue. Insider trading is indeed the Achilles' heel of the prediction market. Once again, the government is stepping in to regulate, and it feels like the freedom is being reduced... But to be fair, that 400,000 operation was a bit too obvious, haha. Platform self-regulation? Don't make me laugh. Only laws can truly stop the bleeding. This was bound to happen sooner or later. As for the 2026 legislation, it's hard to say what will happen then. Prediction markets have always been a gray area, and now they're being put into a cage.

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OPsychology