BTC (as of 2026-01-04 10:00): No clear top; volume contraction and upward movement; bearish factors slightly outweigh, with bulls and bears intertwined.

1. Technical Analysis: No clear top, beware of weekly hidden risks

- Key levels: support at $85,000-$88,000 (20-month EMA around $88,000); resistance at $93,000 and psychological $100,000.
- Weekly chart: beware of potential death cross below the 50-week MA, often a signal of the end of a bull market; monthly chart remains in an upward structure, with potential to challenge $100,000 if it stabilizes above $88,000.
- Indicators: RSI not overbought, no obvious bearish divergence; Bollinger Bands are narrowing, oscillating with no clear direction; 4-hour/daily charts are bullish but with moderate momentum, weekly chart shows divergence leaning bearish.
- On-chain: Long-term holders (LTH) are re-accumulating, selling pressure easing, but ETF net outflows have continued for four weeks, indicating short-term caution among institutions.

2. Volume: Volume contraction with upward movement, lacking strong momentum

- On January 3, daily trading volume was approximately $66.7 million, down about 91% from December 5 ($743 million), indicating volume contraction during the rally.
- Holiday period with low liquidity; breaking through $93,000-$100,000 requires volume confirmation, otherwise false breakouts may revert.

3. Bullish and Bearish Factors: Bearish factors slightly outweigh, with mixed signals

- Bullish: Regulatory window approaching (January hearings, SEC innovation exemptions); long-term holders re-accumulating, spot supply decreasing; some institutions still target $105,000+.
- Bearish: Repeated Fed rate cut expectations, hawkish rhetoric suppressing markets; ETF net outflows exceeding $2.1 billion over four weeks; Standard Chartered lowered 2026 target to $150,000; slow regulatory progress and high compliance costs.

4. Trading Plan (Bearish Perspective)

1. Short trigger: Close below $87,500 on daily chart, or weekly death cross confirmed; initiate partial shorts, with stop-loss above $93,000.
2. Target levels: first at $85,000-$88,000; second at $74,500 (monthly strong support); third at $60,000-$70,000 (200-week MA).
3. Risk management: Trade with small positions in volume-contraction environment, no more than 5% of total capital per trade; exit if volume breaks above $93,000, or consider waiting or reversing position.