#资产代币化 Seeing this wave of analysis claiming that the price will rise to $170,000 in three months, I have to pour cold water on it—I've heard this argument too many times.

RSI oversold five times and then it just keeps going up? That’s not false, but the key is that each time the market environment, liquidity, and institutional attitude are different. What makes the current situation special? Analysts mention tokenization and institutional adoption as the driving forces behind the price, which sounds grand, but I have to ask: have these really materialized, or are they just hype?

I've experienced too many stories of "institutions about to enter and cause a breakout," and then what? Retail investors buy in, and the big players exit. The claim that crypto ETF inflows are hitting record levels needs to be looked at carefully—at what price levels and what timing are these inflows happening? If new funds are attracted at a high point, that’s a warning sign, not a positive signal.

The most critical point to watch is this node. The end of December and the start of 2026, when market sentiment shifts from "cautiously optimistic" to "bullish expectations," is exactly the environment that big players want to manipulate. When negative factors fade and the market rebounds—that’s a common story every cycle. But those who have seen it all know that a rebound often marks the beginning of a new round of harvesting.

My advice is: don’t be blinded by numbers. No matter what analysts say, ask yourself three questions first—do you understand the fundamentals of this project? Can you withstand a 50% drop? Do you have an exit plan? Without clear answers to these, any price target is just an illusion.