Bitcoin retreats to US$ 87,700 as short positions exceed US$ 250 million

Bitcoin is in a pressure zone, oscillating near US$ 87,700 after failing again to break through the psychological resistance of US$ 90,000. The market faces a challenging technical scenario, where recovering this level remains an essential condition to establish a more robust upward trend. According to updated data, the price is at US$ 91.37K with a positive change of 1.88% in the last 24 hours, but trading volume remains moderate at US$ 604.32 million.

The inability to break through keeps the asset in a sideways movement, with pronounced volatility and no clear direction. The price continues testing a narrow range, reflecting fragile balance between supply and demand. Notably, Bitcoin is diverging from precious metals: while gold hits all-time highs amid macroeconomic uncertainties, the crypto asset does not follow the same capital flow that historically correlated these assets in risk-averse environments.

Deteriorated technical structure and compressed liquidity

From a technical perspective, the 200-period moving averages (200SMA and EMA) act as dynamic resistance on the four-hour chart, delimiting a medium-term control zone. The price remaining below these levels increases the likelihood of continued lateral movement or further support tests. Reclaiming this level is considered a key trigger for a more consistent bullish structure.

Failing to turn the $90,000 region into support reinforces participants’ defensive behavior. Each attempt to advance is accompanied by a significant increase in sell orders, containing stronger directional moves and keeping the market without a clear advantage.

The reduced depth of order books amplifies market sensitivity to smaller operations. As the year-end approaches, many traders have reduced exposure to preserve accumulated gains. This seasonal retracement contributes to the contraction of global liquidity and raises the probability of abrupt movements.

Institutional short positions and the liquidity dilemma

Recent data indicate that large investors have opened short positions in Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana, totaling around US$ 250 million. The move reflects a protective strategy against the risk of further corrections, but the impact of these positions becomes more relevant in a low-liquidity environment.

For Bitcoin to break out of the current consolidation, a significant increase in volume accompanying technical recovery is needed. Without this trigger, the price continues testing lower zones in search of sufficient demand to absorb the structural supply.

Constructive divergences emerge on the horizon

Despite the price weakness, momentum indicators are beginning to show positive signs. On the three-day chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) registers higher lows while the price forms lower lows, characterizing a classic bullish divergence. Similar setups preceded significant upward movements in previous cycles.

This divergence also manifests in the BTC/XAU ratio: with gold approaching US$ 4,500 per ounce, the pair indicates a relative loss of value for Bitcoin, suggesting possible technical compression. Liquidity tends to remain constrained during the Christmas week, amplifying both continuation moves and reactions to macroeconomic data.

Miner capitulation: structural network pressure

The Bitcoin network is experiencing a period of significant stress. A VanEck report points to a 4% drop in the hash rate, the sharpest since the first half of 2024, alongside a 9% monthly retracement in price. The 30-day realized volatility exceeded 45%, a level not seen since April 2025.

This combination forces less efficient operators to shut down equipment to avoid operational losses. The capitulation process is likely to reduce medium-term structural selling pressure by eliminating marginal agents who need to liquidate assets to cover immediate costs.

Energy reallocation in China impacts global hash rate

One of the main catalysts was the shutdown of approximately 400,000 machines in Xinjiang province, removing about 1.3 GW of capacity from the network in just 24 hours. The decision is linked to energy reallocation to data centers focused on artificial intelligence, an activity currently offering higher margins than Bitcoin mining.

Estimates indicate a permanent loss of up to 10% of the global hash rate. This reorganization is likely to concentrate mining among operators with access to cheaper energy and more efficient infrastructure, significantly raising the sector’s entry barrier.

Cost compression and state support

For the Bitmain S19 XP model, the breakeven electricity price has fallen from US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.077 per kWh in one year, a 36% reduction. Operations that do not keep pace with this compression face increasing risk of becoming economically unviable.

Despite difficulties, VanEck estimates that at least 13 countries are already participating in mining with some level of state support, pursuing objectives of energy or monetary sovereignty.

Recovery history suggests opportunity

Historically, drops in the hash rate have been followed by positive Bitcoin returns in 65% of cases after 90 days. During periods of hash rate contraction over 90-day windows, the average return over six months reached 72%, suggesting that miner capitulation often coincides with the exhaustion of selling pressure and possible trend reversal.