Bitcoin hovers around US$ 90,000 as reduced liquidity amplifies volatility

Bitcoin’s price remains trapped in a technical confrontation zone. After retreating to US$ 87,700, the asset cannot consolidate gains above the psychological barrier of US$ 90,000 — a level that has concentrated significant sell order volume for weeks. The Wall Street session on Tuesday maintains the selling pressure pattern, making it clear that the market is still digesting the recent weeks of uncertainty.

Recent data indicate a price around US$ 91.37K with a positive 1.80% change in 24 hours, reflecting the day’s volatility. Still, the inability to break and hold above US$ 90,000 resistance signals caution for traders.

Technical analysis shows weakening selling pressure, but no reversal confirmation

The four-hour chart reveals a concerning pattern: the price continues testing the 200-period simple and exponential moving averages, which act as dynamic barriers. As long as these indicators keep the asset pressured, the outlook remains tilted toward sideways oscillation or new support tests.

However, signs of possible selling exhaustion emerge. The three-day analysis shows a classic bullish divergence: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) marks progressive lows while the price forms increasingly lower lows. This misalignment, observed in previous cycles, often precedes reversal movements when accompanied by additional catalysts.

The Bitcoin-gold ratio also signals technical compression. With the precious metal approaching US$ 4,500 per ounce, the BTC/XAU ratio indicates a relative loss of the crypto asset, suggesting Bitcoin is not keeping pace with capital flows into risk refuges that benefit gold and silver.

Institutional investors increase protection with US$ 250 million in short positions

Recent data reveal that large investors have opened combined short positions in Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana totaling approximately US$ 250 million. The move does not represent an aggressive bet against the market but rather a hedging strategy against the risk of further corrections.

The problem lies in the shallow depth of order books. Any moderate-sized operation begins causing abrupt movements. Without a significant increase in buying volume, the price tends to remain in consolidation, testing lower levels in search of sufficient demand.

Year-end proximity worsens the scenario. Many traders reduce exposure to preserve accumulated gains, a seasonal behavior that decreases global liquidity and raises the likelihood of abrupt movements, even without new economic or political catalysts.

Miner capitulation eliminates marginal agents, reducing structural pressure

The network faces its most challenging period for mining operators. The hash rate has fallen 4% — the steepest decline since the first half of 2024 — alongside a 9% retracement in the monthly price. The 30-day realized volatility exceeded 45%, a level not recorded since April 2025.

This combination forces less efficient miners to shut down equipment to avoid operational losses. The process, known as capitulation, tends to reduce medium-term structural selling pressure by eliminating agents who need to liquidate assets to cover immediate costs.

China redirects energy to AI, removing 1.3 GW of mining in 24 hours

The recent main catalyst was the shutdown of approximately 400,000 mining machines in Xinjiang province. The action removed about 1.3 GW of computational capacity in just one day, a measure linked to reallocating energy resources to data centers focused on artificial intelligence.

AI activity offers higher operational margins than Bitcoin mining in the current context. Estimates indicate that up to 10% of the global hash rate could be permanently lost. This reorganization tends to concentrate mining among operators with access to cheap energy and efficient infrastructure, significantly raising the sector’s entry barrier.

Cost compression creates a scenario of selective economic viability

Bitmain S19 XP equipment demonstrates the extent of this transformation: the breakeven electricity price dropped from US$ 0.12 to US$ 0.077 per kWh in one year — a 36% reduction. Operations that do not keep pace with this cost compression face increasing risk of becoming unviable.

Despite immediate difficulties, at least 13 countries are already involved in Bitcoin mining with some level of state support, aiming for energy or monetary sovereignty. This support tends to preserve a base of miners even in adverse environments.

Historically, contractions in the hash rate have been followed by positive Bitcoin returns in 65% of cases after 90 days. In periods where the hash rate contracted over 90-day windows, the average return in six months reached 72%, suggesting miner capitulation often coincides with the exhaustion of short-term selling pressure.

The market now awaits more consistent signs of buyer capital entry to confirm any trend change.