Tensor(TAO) signals a bearish outlook ahead of the first halving… 'Supply reduction' scarcity vs. 'Position reduction' reality

Tensor(TAO) is trading at $266.90 as of Monday, up +9.46% in 24 hours, but the derivatives market remains indifferent despite the approaching halving. - Open interest (OI) in futures contracts has decreased by 1.18%, falling to $210.8 million, and the funding rate has shifted from positive to negative, indicating a ‘short dominance’ structure. - Technical analysis on the 4-hour chart shows a symmetrical triangle pattern that broke downward at the lower support, with the current test of the 50 EMA at $291. If it fails, a staged decline from $265 to $250 could occur. ## Halving positive news, futures market interprets as ‘position reduction’

Tensor will experience its first halving on Monday. The issuance per block will be halved from 1 TAO to 0.5 TAO, and the daily new supply will decrease by 50% from 7,200 to 3,600 tokens. Theoretically, reduced supply increases scarcity, which is positive for long-term value, but actual market reactions have been mixed.

The futures market sentiment appears subdued. Recently, the 24-hour TAO futures open interest has decreased by 1.18%, dropping to around $210.8 million. Both new entries and existing positions are being reduced simultaneously, signaling that large traders are switching to risk management mode.

A more notable indicator is the rapid change in the funding rate. The weighted funding rate for OI dropped from 0.0060% at the beginning of the month to -0.0022%. This marks a sudden reversal from a structure where longs received a premium to one where they do not. It indicates that short-term market sentiment has sharply shifted from ‘bullish bets’ to ‘bearish hedges.’ Since the alpha reward mechanism remains intact, supply changes only affect the rate of new issuance.

Technical structure: ‘Staged correction’ underway after 4-hour triangle breakdown

Technically, Tensor is in a crisis phase. The 4-hour chart shows that the symmetrical triangle support line connecting the lows of December 1 and 7 has been broken downward. The Monday rebound is currently viewed as a retest of this broken support line from above.

The retest zone is around the 50 EMA at $291. If the price turns downward again from this level, a staged decline is expected as follows:

Downside scenario:

• First correction target: S1 pivot point at $286 → $265
• Second deeper target: S2 pivot point at $250

The current price of $266.90 is already close to the $265 support, so if further decline occurs, the move toward $250 could happen relatively quickly. Daily momentum indicators also support a bearish outlook. RSI is at 42, below the neutral 50, indicating additional selling pressure. MACD and signal lines are trending downward into negative territory, suggesting bearish momentum is accumulating.

Upside scenario remains possible but ‘limited’

Not entirely closed off. If Tensor closes above $291 at the 50 EMA, a short-term rebound target could be the R1 pivot point at $305. However, this zone overlaps with ‘retracement resistance and technical hurdles,’ so if the rebound lacks clear momentum and remains purely technical, selling pressure could re-emerge.

Despite the positive news of halving supply, the market is maintaining a light position stance in anticipation of further declines. For traders, whether the price can break through the $291 resistance will likely be a key short-term indicator of direction.