Gold breaks through the $4,500 mark, what is the institutional forecast for the future target? It actually reaches $10,000

Since the beginning of 2025, gold has performed astonishingly — prices have surged a total of 72%, and silver has soared by 145%. On December 24, gold once again hit a historic high of $4,525 per ounce, while silver also set a record at $72.59 per ounce. This rally is not a coincidence but the result of multiple factors resonating together.

The Core Forces Driving Gold Higher

Geopolitical tensions have become a recent catalyst. The United States has imposed a comprehensive blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers and signals suggest it may escalate to military action, which often boosts demand for safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair candidate Hassett recently warned that the U.S. interest rate cut progress is lagging behind other major central banks, reflecting a divergence in global monetary policies.

But deeper drivers come from central bank and institutional allocations. Central banks worldwide are increasing their official gold reserves, and investment institutions are accelerating diversification strategies. This long-term trend still has considerable room for growth. In short, gold has evolved from a simple safe-haven tool to a core option in global asset allocation.

Institutional Forecasts: How Much More Can It Rise?

JPMorgan Chase provides a relatively conservative mid-term forecast — expecting the average price of gold to reach $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026; and to rise further to $5,400 per ounce by the end of 2027. However, the bank emphasizes that upside risks still dominate.

If only 0.5% of global offshore dollar assets shift into gold, the resulting new demand would be enough to push gold to $6,000 per ounce. Although this assumption seems moderate, it reflects the enormous potential of gold in global asset rebalancing.

Research firm Yardeni Research is even more optimistic. It has significantly raised its gold target for the end of 2026 to $6,000 per ounce, far exceeding previous expectations. More aggressively, Yardeni Research projects that by the end of 2029, gold could reach a historic high of $10,000 per ounce.

From the Current $4,500 to $10,000 in the Future

Currently, gold is less than 10% away from the $5,000 mark, about 30% from $6,000, and approximately 120% from the $10,000 target by the end of 2029. This means that over the next roughly three years, gold still has more than double its current value potential — provided that central bank demand remains high and investor allocation steadily increases.

The bull market has not yet peaked, and the upward momentum remains strong. Central bank reserve accumulation, geopolitical instability, and the ongoing global rate-cut cycle, combined with multiple factors, will continue to support gold.