Mid-December Multi-Asset Market Divergence: An Introduction to Technical Analysis for Four Major Market Strategies

The US employment data presents a mixed picture, with non-farm payrolls fluctuating under pressure, while the unemployment rate rises to a four-year high of 4.6%. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have clearly cooled. Such conflicting data has provided technical support for the dollar around 98.0, leading to a short-term stalemate in the trend.

The US dollar faces consolidation tests, with support levels being critical

The US Dollar Index repeatedly tested key levels in mid-December, touching a low of 97.8 before rebounding and pushing further up to the 98.5 area. The stop in decline at the Gann line suggests limited buying power, indicating a short-term technical consolidation.

If the dollar index breaks below the 98.0 support, it may further decline toward 95.2; conversely, it needs to hold above 99.3 to reverse the weakness. Key levels include supports at 96.5, 95.2 and resistances at 98.5, 99.3, 100.0.

Gold bulls face temporary setbacks; a breakthrough requires time

Gold has rebounded around $4,342, but repeated attempts to break above $4,350 have failed, reflecting significant selling pressure overhead. The overall trend shows no signs of reversal, and the market may oscillate between 4,220 and 4,300 in the near term.

If gold can effectively break through $4,381, it could challenge levels at $4,438 and even $4,570; if it falls below $4,200 support, the rally will be over. Key supports are at 4,300, 4,220, 4,130, with resistances at 4,381, 4,438, 4,570.

Crude oil correction signals emerge, rebound faces testing

WTI crude oil has fallen for four consecutive days, hitting a four-year low, but short-term technical rebound signs have appeared, with a gain of 1.16%, reaching $56.09. However, the $57.0 area remains a strong resistance, and the rebound may face multiple challenges.

If the rebound stalls at $57.0, there is still a possibility of further declines to $55.0 or even $52.0; reversing the medium-term downtrend requires a break above $59.0. Supports are at 55.0, 52.5; resistances at 57.0, 59.0, 61.5.

Nasdaq 100 risks remain unresolved; beware of weak rebounds

The tech index is temporarily stable around 25,200, hovering at that level. However, the AO indicator shows downward momentum is accumulating, and rebound strength is clearly insufficient, indicating downside risks in technical terms.

If the index faces resistance at 25,500 during a rebound, the probability of further decline to 25,000 or even 24,000 increases. Supports are at 25,200, 24,900, 24,000; resistances are at 26,000, 26,300, 27,600.

Key points for technical analysis beginners: Under multi-asset linkage, the trend of a single asset is often driven by overall market sentiment. The relatively strong dollar and weak crude oil outlook may persist, while uncertainties facing gold and Nasdaq require ongoing attention.