The end-of-year prediction has basically come true. On the last day of December, it was mentioned that BTC was showing three consecutive bearish candles on the monthly chart. According to historical patterns, the probability of four consecutive bearish candles on the monthly chart is extremely low. At that time, altcoins had already bottomed out, and retail investors either didn't dare to act or were shorting. In this situation, further dumping wouldn't make much sense—there are no buyers to absorb the sell-off. So the logic is clear: first, a wave of overall rebound in altcoins, roughly around 30%, and when everyone is shouting "Altcoin Season is here," a new downward trend will follow. Only then will the opposing volume be sufficient.

The performance of PEPE in early January confirmed this rhythm. Once it started to surge upward, it basically established the tone for a rebound throughout January. Looking at it now, the directional judgment hasn't been off.

In fact, those who follow closely understand—I'm not purely bullish nor purely bearish here. Just observe how the market behaves. Throughout 2024's September and October, I emphasized the characteristics of the late-stage bull market, and by the end of December, I clearly shifted to saying a short-term rebound was imminent. Every time, there's a clear direction, never ambiguous. If it's time to short, then short; if it's time to go long, then go long. Early positioning is fundamental.

This kind of judgment method can help you avoid detours. When you encounter clear analysis, it's worth paying more attention.