Taking a long position at a low point essentially means using time to exchange for space, but the question is—how can you truly identify the bottom?

Some look at technical analysis, others focus on market sentiment, but both often miss the mark. The key is to see three confirmations happening simultaneously. First, assess how desperate the market sentiment is; only when the Fear & Greed Index drops below 20 is it considered qualified. Second, on-chain data must provide signals—long-term holders starting to accumulate indicates whales are quietly positioning themselves. Lastly, on the technical side, the support level on the monthly chart must hold firmly. When all three signals turn red simultaneously, that’s the mid-term bottom.

After confirming the bottom, how to build a position? Don’t go all-in at once, as that creates psychological pressure and makes you vulnerable to being shaken out. Use the pyramid method—initially invest only 20% of your planned funds, then add 30% each time the price drops by 15%. This way, your average cost will end up near the upper edge of the bottom zone, about 10% below the lowest point. During the repeated oscillations and bottom-building process, your cost decreases gradually, increasing your chances of profit when the rebound occurs.

Historical data shows that when Bitcoin’s weekly MACD shows a bullish divergence and the price hits the lower Bollinger Band, the median return within six months can reach around 180%. But the prerequisite is patience and discipline.

When choosing coins, don’t pick blindly. Check if the developer community is active (an average of over 100 commits per month on GitHub is a pass), and whether the ecosystem applications are genuinely growing (a week-over-week increase of more than 10% in active addresses indicates real usage). Projects that rely solely on marketing hype without practical use cases should be avoided, no matter how cheap they are.

There’s also a point many overlook—time cost. It usually takes 6 to 18 months of accumulation in a bear market to see real gains. Therefore, you should reserve at least 24 months of emergency funds for your life, so you’re not forced to sell when you temporarily lack cash, which would waste all your previous efforts. Historically, those who truly profit from bottom-fishing are not necessarily the smartest, but those who can persist the longest. Sow seeds when the market is silent, and harvest when everyone is talking—this is the entire game rule of bottom-up long positions.