#比特币价格预测 Looking at the data on Polymarket steadily declining from 11% to 10%, I have to say this wave of market movement is indeed teaching us something.

Remember the early-year hype about "Bitcoin will definitely hit 100,000"? The entire screen was filled with black-and-white opinions—either it will explode or it will die. But now, the probability of breaking 100,000 has dropped to a single digit, while the chance of falling below 80,000 is gradually rising—this is not cold data; it’s the market correcting expectations.

Having been in this space for a long time, the most valuable lesson I’ve learned is: **Predictions themselves are a trap**. Whether it’s the probabilities on Polymarket or the calls from some big influencers, it’s easy to fall into the thinking trap of "must bet on the right direction." Even more frightening is that when expectations are missed, some people become more aggressive with leverage to try to recover—this is the best time to get liquidated.

Instead of making FOMO decisions based on these probability numbers, ask yourself: at the current price range of 83,000, what is my risk tolerance? Where is my stop-loss? Is this amount enough to withstand a 30% correction? If you can’t answer these questions, then looking at predictions ten times over is pointless.

The market is changing, odds are adjusting, and this precisely shows that there is no certain answer—only well-defended trades are worth betting on.