2026-01-05 03:28:37

Recently, there has been a subtle shift in Wall Street sentiment, gradually moving from inflation concerns to an employment crisis. The unemployment rate has surged from 4% to 4.6%, which is not just a number; it reflects a freeze in corporate hiring and a wave of layoffs.

Where is the real problem? The surface unemployment data may conceal deeper economic risks. Tariff policies have directly cut over 70,000 factory jobs, and the wave of bankruptcies continues. More alarmingly, economist Rosenberg warns that by 2026, US employment growth could approach zero, which is the true black swan.

Economic data has begun to show cracks. The savings rate has collapsed, income growth has stagnated, and retail consumption growth is only 0.2%. Sales of non-essential consumer goods are declining across the board, and the entire economy is forming a K-shaped split—the gap in consumption ability between the rich and the poor is widening, and the hollowing out of the middle class is becoming increasingly evident.

The rate cut game has already begun. Wall Street conservatives expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, but Rosenberg is more aggressive, believing that a violent rate cut of 125 basis points is necessary, bringing rates below 2.25% to save the market. The divergence between the two factions essentially reflects the dilemma between inflation and growth.

This week will be a critical moment. China and the US PMI data will be released soon, and the US non-farm employment report will be a heavy bombshell. These data will directly determine the rate cut expectations for January, thereby influencing global asset allocation.

If Rosenberg’s prophecy comes true, 2026 will face not a soft landing, but a global shock triggered by exploding unemployment and rate cuts. In this macro context, Bitcoin’s appeal as a borderless asset may significantly increase.

BTC-0,43%

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DegenWhisperer

· 01-07 21:53

Rosengberg's 125 basis points are really crazy. When the dollar becomes worthless paper, going all in on Bitcoin is the right move.

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RuntimeError

· 01-07 18:14

Rosenberg, this guy really dares to speak out. Dropping 125 basis points directly—if that really happens, the global asset allocation will be completely reshuffled.

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GasFeeSobber

· 01-07 12:55

Oh my, another wave of layoffs... The collapse of savings rates is really frightening. --- 125 basis points? Rosenberg's guy is dreaming, I'm just worried the Federal Reserve won't dare to move at all. --- The K-shaped divide is too extreme; middle class is really about to disappear. --- Next week's data release will probably be a mess again. Now I can only go all-in on Bitcoin. --- 70,000 factory jobs gone directly... This is the cost of policy. --- Feels like the story of 2026 is still long, those who get in early are all earning. --- The game of rate cuts... It’s giving me a headache, Bitcoin is still more reliable. --- Consumer growth rate of 0.2%? This number makes me feel uneasy; the economy is really in trouble. --- Tariffs cutting jobs is no joke; some people have already lost their jobs on social media. --- Rosenberg is right; now it all depends on whether the Federal Reserve dares to bet everything.

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WhaleSurfer

· 01-07 11:41

Here we go again, 70,000 factory jobs gone, this is the cost of the trade war. The middle class is completely hollowed out, rich people still spend, but for us, it's really dire. Rosenberg was right, by 2026, almost zero job growth? At that point, we might really have to rely on BTC to survive. Savings rate collapsed, income stagnated, consumption dropped to just 0.2%... As soon as I saw these numbers, I knew it’s not a soft landing but a hard crash. Whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates or not, it’s a trap. 50 basis points or 125 basis points, basically choosing between slow death or quick death. The data coming out this week will probably cause another round of intense volatility. The key issue is the K-shaped divide—poor people are getting poorer, the rich are hoarding coins and real estate, and the middle class is being cut out? It seems we need to start allocating some alternative assets in advance.

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LiquidationTherapist

· 01-05 03:54

Wait, 70,000 factory jobs gone? That number is way more shocking than the surface unemployment rate. Rosenberg really dares to say it—125 basis points? Wall Street folks are probably going crazy. The middle class is really being pushed out; the K-shaped split is no joke—this is the reality. Is the non-farm payroll report going to explode this week? I might as well go all in on Bitcoin since fiat currency can't be saved anyway. With the savings rate collapsing to just 0.2%, this economy won't last much longer.

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RamenDeFiSurvivor

· 01-05 03:53

Here comes another "Black Swan," this time it's not inflation, but employment. In other words, the economy is not looking good. 70,000 factory jobs lost. This number needs to drop drastically to wake people up... Is the middle class really going extinct? It feels like everyone around is being forced to lie flat. Rosenberg is really daring to speak. 125 basis points? Probably wants to see the Federal Reserve surrender directly. Non-farm payroll data will hit the market hard this week. I'm already nervous. Soft landing? Laughable. By 2026, it might be a free fall. Why not accumulate some BTC now? Anyway, fiat currency can't be preserved. Can rate cuts save the market? Feels like just closing your eyes and stealing a bell. Savings rate has collapsed, and consumption is only 0.2%? People are really living harder and harder. In fact, it's just one sentence: the rich are getting richer, and we are getting poorer. No one can change this trend.

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FreeRider

· 01-05 03:49

70,000 factory jobs gone, is this the "subtle shift" on Wall Street? Laughable, just a wave of layoffs. --- Middle class is hollowing out, and you're still expecting consumption to drive the economy? That logic is flawed. --- Rosenberg wants to cut interest rates to 2.25%? That's a gamble—either save the market or ignite inflation, no middle ground. --- Zero growth in 2026, is it too late to say this now... Should have seen it coming long ago. --- Collapse of savings rate, stagnant income, 0.2% growth in consumption—this isn't even called a crisis. --- So in the end, it still points to btc being able to rise, huh? Tired of this logic. --- Once PMI data is out, you'll know if it hits hard or not. This week is indeed a bit uncertain. --- The K-shaped split sounds nice, but basically it means the poor get poorer, and the rich continue to harvest. --- Tariff policies are really digging a hole for the US economy. This debt will have to be paid sooner or later. --- If non-farm payroll data really bombs, then it's not something that rate cuts can fix.

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OnchainArchaeologist

· 01-05 03:46

Rosenberg's guy is right, 125 basis points? Just pin the Federal Reserve to the floor, that's true market rescue. The hollowing out of the middle class is really heartbreaking. The K-shaped divide means increasing wealth disparity, and we are stuck in the middle, awkwardly. The real damage is from cutting 70,000 jobs due to tariffs. Don't just focus on the unemployment rate; the wave of bankruptcies behind it is the real threat. The non-farm payroll report is expected to cause a market explosion this week. Global assets will tremble, and Bitcoin might really take off. The savings rate collapse and retail growth slowing to just 0.2%—isn't that a sign of recession? Still hoping to have a job in 2026? Suspense.

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ApeWithAPlan

· 01-05 03:33

70,000 factory jobs lost, this is the real "black swan," Rosenberg is not wrong --- K-shaped split is getting more and more outrageous, the poor, the retail investors, and the middle class are hollowed out. Who can survive this wave? --- Cut interest rates by 125 basis points? Wake up, the Federal Reserve wouldn't go that crazy, we still need to look at the data --- Saving money? Don't be ridiculous, the savings rate has collapsed, what are you hoping for? --- If this week's data explodes, Bitcoin will really take off. Are you ready to get on board? --- Tariffs, this big weapon, cut 70,000 jobs, and then still want to cut interest rates to rescue? What's the logic? --- Zero growth in 2026 is really coming, then digital assets will be the only safe haven --- Retail consumption growth is only 0.2%, still daring to spend? People are shrinking their consumption --- Wall Street's conservatives are too naive; 50 basis points can't save this situation --- This week’s China-US PMI will reveal the truth, and global asset allocation will have to be rewritten

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StakeTillRetire

· 01-05 03:29

Wait, 70,000 factory jobs are gone? This is just the tip of the iceberg of tariffs, right? --- I have deep personal experience with middle-class hollowing out—the despair of having no money and no opportunities. --- Robsonberg's words are harsh—125 basis points? Is this to revive the economy or to save it? --- Really, the non-farm payroll report is the key focus this week; it will determine how we allocate our assets moving forward. --- The K-shaped divide is indeed real; it's becoming more evident—wealthy people still spend, while those without money are dropping out. --- Approaching zero growth, it seems we'll really have to rely on Bitcoin to hedge this mess. --- Savings rate collapse🙃 I don't feel secure leaving my money anywhere, I need to find ways to increase its value. --- The key is, when will this data bottom out? It still feels like it's on a downward trend.

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