Recently, a bold Bitcoin prediction has been circulating—analysts claim that the average annual increase over the next ten years will be 30%, with a single coin breaking through $1.4 million by 2035. At first glance, it sounds like a pipe dream, but upon digging into the underlying logic, there’s actually some substance to it.

First, let’s look at the hardcore support: the halving mechanism. Bitcoin undergoes a supply halving every 4 years, which means the new coin issuance is cut in half directly. Historically, after three halvings, the most aggressive rallies saw an increase of over 8200%. Since the 2024 halving until now, the annual growth rate has been 83%. Although volatile, the overall direction is firmly upward.

As supply-side pressure mounts, demand side isn’t sitting idle. Top-tier institutions like BlackRock are pouring 150 billion dollars into the chain, and institutional ETFs are aggressively buying up. This isn’t something retail investors can drive. The wave of global asset digitization is truly unstoppable.

Now, let’s consider the underlying logic of scarcity—Bitcoin’s total supply is capped at 21 million coins, permanently. Its annual inflation rate is even lower than gold’s, and institutions have long used it as a hedge against inflation. This mathematical scarcity is more solid than any marketing pitch.

But we must admit, reaching that $1.4 million mark requires more than just cyclical operation; it also depends on the alignment of many variables—policy environment, global macro trends, deep institutional participation. The prediction itself has logical support, but whether it hits precisely is another matter.

What do you think? Do you believe this price target is justified, or do you think it’s exaggerated? Share your honest thoughts in the comments.