Silver has been getting interesting lately. The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March is growing stronger. According to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has surged to 47.1%. This suggests the US dollar index may continue to be under pressure, directly benefiting silver, which is priced in dollars.

From the demand side, the support for silver is quite solid. Global photovoltaic installations continue to expand, and the new energy vehicle industry is also developing rapidly. All of these rely on silver as a core conductive material. The actual industrial demand is evident, with a widening supply and demand gap, providing strong long-term support for silver prices.

However, there is a detail worth noting—there will be an annual rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index in the first two weeks of January. Historical experience shows this period may trigger a wave of technical selling pressure. Interestingly, silver tends to be less affected by passive reductions compared to gold. In simple terms, even if there is short-term pressure, in a bullish trend, it is just a correction, and the core logic remains unchanged.

In terms of trading strategy, we can consider the following: entry points around 73.4, which aligns with the upper edge of the hourly MA20. The previous low of 73.2 provides support here, resonating with this level. The middle Bollinger Band has not been effectively broken downward, indicating a healthy pullback within an upward trend.

If prices continue to fall to 72.4, that would be a good opportunity to add positions. The 72.4 level coincides with the MA60 and the previous key support zone, forming a double support that looks like a bottoming process. A pullback here further confirms the support’s validity, making it an efficient point to average down and reduce costs.

Risk control cannot be relaxed; the stop-loss should be strictly set at 71.3. This level is the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range and a critical turning point of the daily upward trend line. If broken, the MA60 and MA120 will form a death cross, and the short-term upward structure will be broken, signaling a clear risk reversal.

Overall, the dual support of rate cut expectations and industrial demand provides considerable room for silver. During pullbacks, consider positioning with targets around 77-79. Of course, markets are ever-changing, so specific operations should be adjusted flexibly according to real-time conditions.