Pizza index soars by 1250%, Trump threatens military action, geopolitical risks return to the crypto market

The pizza shop near the Pentagon suddenly experienced a surge in business. This is not a joke, but an unofficial warning signal within Washington’s policy circles. On January 5th, local time, according to monitoring data, the Domino’s Pizza 2.3 miles from the Pentagon saw a 1250% increase in foot traffic, while the Pizza Palace 1.0 mile away experienced a 313% surge. The Pentagon has entered a level three alert state. On the same day, U.S. President Trump threatened military action against Colombia aboard Air Force One and told reporters that such an action “sounds good.” This is not an isolated incident but the latest sign of the U.S. escalating its geopolitical stance in Latin America.

Chain Reaction of Geopolitical Escalation

Trump’s threats are not unfounded. Just two days prior, the U.S. had intervened militarily in Venezuela, with Trump even announcing that the U.S. would “take over” Venezuela, control its government operations, and plan to involve major oil companies to invest billions of dollars in restoring oil infrastructure. Now, the focus shifts to Colombia, with Trump accusing President Petro of “manufacturing cocaine and selling it to the U.S.,” and threatening that “this won’t go on for much longer.”

Specific manifestations of geopolitical escalation

• U.S. military intervention and regime change in Venezuela
• Direct military threats against Colombia
• Pentagon entering a state of alert (reflected by the pizza index data)
• Latin America becoming a strategic priority for the U.S.

This escalation is not just political rhetoric but also signifies that the U.S. is restarting a combination of “energy + financial sanctions.” According to relevant analyses, the U.S. Secretary of State has clarified that they do not intend to directly control Venezuela but will exert structural economic pressure through oil embargoes, seizure of oil tankers, and other means. The essence of this strategy is to tighten constraints on the global crude oil supply.

The Dual Impact of Geopolitical Risks on the Crypto Market

Short-term Market Pressure

The macro uncertainty caused by escalating geopolitical tensions may suppress risk assets in the short term. The risk premium on energy prices is unlikely to dissipate quickly, and inflation expectations along with interest rate uncertainties will again influence global asset pricing. Market risk appetite may remain highly volatile. This suggests that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin could continue to face pressure in the near term.

Medium to Long-term Safe-haven Demand

This is the key area for the crypto market to watch. When geopolitical risks escalate and traditional financial systems become more uncertain, Bitcoin, as a decentralized asset, becomes more attractive as a safe haven and capital transfer tool. Especially as global conflicts fragment and sanctions become normalized, institutions and high-net-worth individuals may increase their holdings of Bitcoin as part of their asset allocation.

Personal Viewpoint

This geopolitical escalation should not be simplified as merely Trump’s threatening rhetoric. The deeper logic is that the U.S. is maintaining control over the global energy and financial systems through military pressure and economic sanctions. Against this backdrop, the core focus of the crypto market should return to whether the market is beginning to reprice “long-term geopolitical instability,” rather than reacting to short-term events.

Follow-up Focus

From now until the first half of 2026, several key signals should be observed:

• Whether the U.S. will take real military action against Colombia or just use it as bargaining chip
• Whether oil prices will continue to rise due to geopolitical risks, thereby pushing up inflation expectations
• Whether institutional investors will start increasing their Bitcoin holdings as a hedge against geopolitical risks
• Whether the Federal Reserve will adjust its monetary policy path due to rising geopolitical tensions

Summary

The activation of the “Pizza Index” at the Pentagon and Trump’s military threats against Colombia reflect the current state of escalating U.S. geopolitical tensions in Latin America. In the short term, this escalation may suppress crypto asset performance through inflation expectations and interest rate uncertainties; but in the medium to long term, rising geopolitical risks provide a new narrative support for decentralized assets like Bitcoin. The key is to distinguish between short-term volatility and long-term trends, avoiding panic selling during high volatility, while also being alert to potential deep corrections when market expectations peak. The crypto market is waiting to see whether the market will truly reprice “long-term geopolitical instability,” which will be decisive for future trends.