Renowned trader adjusts strategy: shifting from Perp to prediction markets, what signals does this send?

Well-known trader Dai Dai Dai Bitcoin recently shared his investment strategy adjustments on social media, with the core view that after the Lit TGE, overall expectations for the Perp track should be lowered, while the outlook for prediction markets is more optimistic. This perspective reflects the market’s differing assessments of the development stages of these two tracks.

Why is the Perp Track Cooling Down?

Insights from Lit TGE

As an important project in the Perp track, Lit’s performance after its TGE was merely “steady,” which is a key signal. Dai Dai Dai Bitcoin believes that when a highly anticipated project performs only modestly after TGE, it indicates that the hype for that track may have already been released, and subsequent growth potential is limited.

Issues with the Current Strategy

• If a trading model has become relatively stable, increasing investment costs will lead to diminishing returns
• Decreased track popularity means less new capital inflow
• Existing participants should maintain rather than expand their investments

Changes in Capital Flows

Dai Dai Dai Bitcoin has shifted funds from Lighter to projects like Standx and Var, which is not only a project switch but also a reassessment of the track’s prospects. The capital flow of leading traders often signals micro-market signals.

Why is the Prediction Market Becoming the New Focus?

Advantages of the Development Stage of the Track

Compared to the Perp track, prediction markets have two key advantages:

• Clear prospects: the track’s direction is well-defined, with diverse application scenarios
• No TGE conducted: meaning there is still room for growth, and project teams have not yet released tokens

Shift in Investment Logic

The shift from Perp to prediction markets reflects a strategic adjustment from “maintaining returns in mature tracks” to “participating in growth in emerging tracks.” Projects that have already undergone TGE tend to be more certain, but tracks without TGE often carry more uncertainty, offering greater imagination space.

What Does This Mean?

From the perspective of capital flows, the strategic adjustments of well-known traders are often early indicators of market sentiment changes. The cooling of the Perp track from high enthusiasm to a more rational state may be underway, while prediction markets could become the next focus of capital attention.

This does not mean the Perp track has no value, but rather that its growth phase may have passed, and participants should shift from an “expansion mode” to a “maintenance mode.” For prediction markets, more attention is needed, as this track may still be in its early stages.

Summary

Dai Dai Dai Bitcoin’s viewpoints highlight two important signals: first, the heat of the Perp track may be returning to rationality, and the steady performance after TGE suggests that growth expectations should be adjusted; second, prediction markets, with clear prospects and no TGE yet, are attracting more professional capital. For investors, this reminds us to regularly evaluate the cycle of the track and adjust strategies in a timely manner as the track moves from expansion to maturity. The TGE performance of prediction markets in the future may serve as an important reference to validate this judgment.