2026-01-05 05:00:45

#数字资产动态追踪 The truth behind this round of rebound is less about a market reversal and more about liquidity gradually recovering.$BTC

In the past few days, many have been discussing whether it's time to change their mindset. But upon careful analysis of the market, the main driver pushing prices upward isn't a directional shift, but rather the process of market liquidity moving from drought to replenishment.$ETH

The panic and greed index dropping to around 42 is quite meaningful—it’s in a gray area where neither extreme panic nor greed is dominant. In other words, the previous "collapse" sentiment is loosening, money is starting to dare to explore, but it hasn't reached a fully bullish stage yet.

$BNB Breaking down the logic of this rise:

The destructive power of the bears is clearly weakening. The previous continuous drops were mainly due to chain reactions of liquidations in derivatives, with high-leverage positions being repeatedly flushed out, which naturally eased the selling pressure. When new lows become less frequent, the support at the bottom begins to show.

Then there's the combination of low-level catch-up gains and short-squeeze self-rescue plays. This rally isn't very aggressive; rather, it feels like a tug-of-war. Essentially, it's a structural rebound formed by retail traders adding to their positions and forced short-covering—far from the main upward phase driven by big players.

As sentiment improves, cautious funds dare to enter. A market that no longer hits new lows daily will naturally attract testing capital, and trading volume gradually picks up. This positive feedback loop is what we see as liquidity recovery. However, these funds tend to be quick in and out; once expectations are shattered, they withdraw immediately.

The most crucial point: liquidity recovery and market reversal are two different things.

Right now, it's more like the market is taking a deep breath rather than signaling a frantic surge. Instead of obsessing over the direction, it's more practical to manage positions well and reduce trading frequency.

The real opportunities to make money often hide in those moments when everyone starts feeling uncertain again.

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MechanicalMartel

· 01-07 09:12

Liquidity repair does not equal reversal, and that's a valid point. But I think the problem is that retail investors simply can't distinguish between these two concepts and still get caught in the trap. After such a long tug-of-war, I'm already tired and prefer to stay on the sidelines for safety. The gray area with a panic index of 42, frankly, means no one dares to buy in and no one dares to hold their positions, which is quite uncomfortable. Is the bearish killing power weakening? Uh... the contracts that were liquidated have long been washed out, and this rebound is purely an opportunity for retail investors to add positions. When will the real main upward phase come? Continuing this back-and-forth is causing a mental breakdown. Position management is a good suggestion; it's much more reliable than guessing the market all day. Funds that try to test the waters can enter quickly and exit just as fast, which is a trap—if you're not careful, you'll get caught.

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WalletDetective

· 01-06 23:15

Liquidity repair does not equal reversal, this point is indeed easily misunderstood by beginners. The 42 greed and fear index makes it clear, it's still a gray area. Honestly, this kind of structural rebound is most likely to be caught at a high point, and a slight expectation of a break will cause a rush to exit. Position management is the key, don't be blinded by the gains. Good grief, are we about to start doubting again? Isn't this the moment to make money? The diminishing power of the bears' attack ≠ bottom formation, we need to be very cautious. The chain reaction of contract liquidations has finally slowed down, but this is not a signal, just a breather. A deep breath makes the market sound comfortable, but retail investors who enter tend to exit even faster. Liquidity and reversal are truly two different concepts, how many people have confused them?

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PerennialLeek

· 01-05 05:30

Liquidity repair ≠ reversal, many people still haven't figured this out. The 42 Fear and Greed Index is at the most awkward position, and money is still on the sidelines. --- Basically, the bears don't have the strength to push down, and retail investors are forced to close positions. We're still far from the main upward phase. --- It happens every time. As soon as there's a rebound, someone starts YOLO, and once expectations are broken, they withdraw. Managing positions well is the key. --- Just take a deep breath, don't overthink it. The real opportunity is when you're unsure, and it's still too early now. --- Once the contracts are liquidated, the pressure eases, and the logic makes sense. But this wave of rise is just a structural rebound, and the pace isn't aggressive, so don't take it too seriously. --- Trying to test the waters, funds come in and go out quickly—that's the essence of liquidity repair. As soon as there's a slight disturbance, they run. --- The 42 level is actually the most uncomfortable, not desperate enough nor greedy enough. Not being sure is the real issue.

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BloodInStreets

· 01-05 05:30

Liquidity repair ≠ bottom confirmation, you need to think clearly about this, or you'll be pulling the cart again. Basically, it's just a resurrection of the dead, far from the true foodie stage. The most dangerous position is actually at index 42, where funds try to test the waters, entering quickly and exiting even faster, with a single bearish candle. The value trough has not yet been revealed, don't rush to get on board, wait for the market to twist and turn again. Those blood-shares that were washed out earlier are now just taking a breather. The whole logic is about repair, not reversal. Those who confuse the two will have to cut their losses later.

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RamenStacker

· 01-05 05:12

Liquidity repair ≠ reversal, this must be acknowledged. But if we really have to wait until everyone is unsure before entering, then aren't we just waiting forever? --- Basically, the bottom's trash chips have been washed out. Now new retail investors are willing to come in. --- I want to see if the fear index at 42 can drop even further—that would be the real time to get on board. --- Managing your position well and trading less—those words are correct. But I think most people are still trading frequently; shouldn't they reflect on that? --- What after taking a deep breath? Wake up or keep throwing money in—both are not good options. --- The weakening of the short-seller's impact is real, but the thing you mentioned about capital testing the waters—getting in quickly and getting out even faster—I’m more afraid of this moment. --- Feels like dancing right now; the music has stopped, and nobody knows when. There should be quite a few people averaging down halfway up the mountain. --- Instead of studying when the turn will happen, it's better to ask yourself if you can survive to see that moment. --- The index reaching 42 already indicates that many are still hesitant—that's actually a signal, right? --- Liquidity repair is possible, but don't forget how the last rebound ended.

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just_another_wallet

· 01-05 05:07

Honestly, liquidity restoration ≠ bottom reversal, too many people confuse these two. Looking at this wave of market, it more resembles the aftermath of a contract liquidation wave, where panic emotions subside and funds cautiously enter the market; it hasn't even reached the stage where major players are frantically buying up. Don't be fooled by the recent gains; the index is only at 42, still wandering in the gray zone. Once expectations collapse, these testing funds will turn around and run, and the same old trick of retail investors hasn't changed in years. The most heartbreaking part is actually the last sentence—true opportunities often come when everyone is confused. Now is such a moment, rather than staring at K-line charts every day, it's better to straighten out your positions first and avoid frequent self-repair trades. Wait, $BTC , how much drop below which is considered a real bottom? This rebound has been so slow, I suspect there's still room for further decline. The term liquidity restoration has been circulating recently, but judging from the trading volume, activity isn't that high. This rise feels like a tug-of-war between short sellers self-saving and replenishing buyers, far from the main upward phase. I've seen this kind of market deep breath a few times before, usually it's the calm before a sharp drop. Be careful not to get caught in it.

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