2026-01-05 05:00:52

#数字资产动态追踪 A Battle of Market Predictions —

The east is the long-term perspective of those legendary analysis posts on Zhihu, and the west is the historical regularity verification of the Kondratiev cycle theory. Two theoretical systems, two ways of viewing the crypto market—who can more accurately capture the pulse of the next wave?

Rather than daydreaming, it's better to let the data speak. The market will give the answer through fluctuations, and the trend of $BTC is the best touchstone.

Let's keep this judgment here. Stay tuned, and watch the results.

BTC-0,43%

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TradFiRefugee

· 01-07 20:25

To be honest, this kind of theory is a bit empty when it comes to trading. It's better to honestly watch the candlestick charts; BTC is the most honest.

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SurvivorshipBias

· 01-07 14:29

To be honest, no matter how many analysis frameworks there are, it ultimately comes down to who can survive until the end and reap the rewards.

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BearMarketNoodler

· 01-05 12:25

Well... The long articles by Zhihu influencers debating the Kondratiev cycle theory ultimately come down to betting on whose model won't fail. Data speaks, but the problem is that each side is working with different data segments, which is the real covert battle.

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RamenDeFiSurvivor

· 01-05 05:30

Bitcoin is the touchstone, there's nothing wrong with saying that. However, the folks on Zhihu and Kondratiev wave theorists tend to drive with rearview mirrors; the real way to make money still depends on analyzing data yourself.

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LazyDevMiner

· 01-05 05:30

Ha, it's the same old debate again. To be honest, it's all armchair strategizing afterward. The real question is, how will BTC move now?

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GateUser-cff9c776

· 01-05 05:28

Honestly, Zhihu's divine posts and the Kondratiev wave theory are both Schrödinger's predictions. We'll only know who wins once the results come out, haha. BTC trend is indeed a touchstone, but even a touchstone can rust. The question is whether we can understand it. Two theories clash, and in the end, it's still us retail investors following the trend who get hurt. Laugh. I've seen a lot of this "wait for the results" approach; in six months, no one will remember it. Instead of arguing about who's right or wrong, better to ask yourself if you have bullets before reviewing the candlestick charts again.

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ChainMemeDealer

· 01-05 05:24

Data speaks, but the market also likes to make false alarms. Who knows?

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airdrop_huntress

· 01-05 05:21

Kondratiev's theory is unreliable; it still depends on how BTC moves, everything else is just armchair analysis.

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WagmiWarrior

· 01-05 05:10

Data speaks, but I believe more in the death spiral theory of ETH.