2026-01-05 08:28:59

Why is AAVE's rebound momentum so weak? Many people only look at the surface; in reality, the core issue isn't the project quality.

From on-chain data, it indeed looks good—Ethereum mainnet ETH deposits have already surpassed 3 million, approaching 4 million. The market share and active loan proportion in the lending market are among the top tiers in the entire DeFi ecosystem, with a stable market position. But the price just won't move; what's the crux? The overall environment.

Assets like DeFi are essentially dependent on a bull market. During a bull cycle, TVL skyrockets, trading volume explodes, and capital floods in regardless of valuation, with rapid gains. Conversely, in a bear market, everything is completely different. Officially, they promote record-high deposit data every day, but frankly, this is just using growth figures to cover up an awkward truth—overall TVL is actually continuously declining. What does a falling TVL mean? Capital is fleeing. When funds withdraw, market capitalization naturally can't rise.

In a bear market environment, DeFi's cost-effectiveness is also terrible. Not only are yields at the bottom, but it also has to endure increasing industry competition, ecosystem fragmentation, frequent black swan risks, and other pressures. AAVE is a good project, no doubt, but it relies on the bull market to thrive. It's not surprising that it struggles to rebound in a bear market. This also explains why meme coins tend to rebound most fiercely during bear markets.

AAVE-4,82%

ETH-4,56%

MEME-4,53%

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OfflineNewbie

· 21h ago

That hits a bit too close to home. No matter how good the project is, it's all in vain. We still have to wait for the bull market to save us.

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GasFeeSobber

· 01-05 08:57

To be honest, I agree with the saying that DeFi eats the bull market's lunch, but it's really a bit heartbreaking that AAVE is being dragged down so badly. Capital fleeing is the real killer; what’s the use of good-looking data? Playing DeFi in a bear market is like looking for trouble; no wonder everyone is buying MEME. TVL is dropping, talking about new highs is just wishful thinking. AAVE's structure is indeed fine, but the environment is just too damn bad. Without a bull market, who would bother with lending? Might as well gamble on MEME coins. On-chain data looks fine, but the price just doesn’t cooperate—that’s what the market is. Bear market yields are at the bottom, black swans are frequent, and normal people are fleeing. Good projects can't withstand a bad environment—that's the reality.

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LiquidationWatcher

· 01-05 08:44

Exactly right, DeFi in a bear market is just a tool for getting trapped. What's the use of pretty data? Capital is the real boss.

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WhaleWatcher

· 01-05 08:43

Basically, we still have to wait for a bull market. No matter how strong DeFi is, it can't withstand a bear market. No matter how beautiful the data looks, it's all pointless; capital flow is the true king. AAVE is now like holding a golden bowl while begging; the reality of a bear market is like that. Wait, doesn't this logic also imply that MEME coins have no future? A sharp rebound is just a fleeting moment. Record-high deposits are just a numbers game; the true situation is that TVL is declining. Close your eyes and wait for the bull market; everything else is nonsense. This article hits the nail on the head. It's not that AAVE isn't good enough; it's purely the external environment holding it back. Yield rates are at the bottom... can't really compare with stuff like Lido, no wonder funds are fleeing. When the bull market comes, everything rises; when the bear market hits, even the strongest projects have to kneel—that's the logic. DeFi is highly cyclical; it's all about timing.

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MEVEye

· 01-05 08:31

Basically, no one dares to play DeFi anymore; funds have all gone to gamble on MEME coins.

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