2026-01-05 08:29:57

Some words really don't need to be said because others have already believed them. Rules and regulations are always about constraining those who abide by the law; the ones who set them often are not bound by them. The key to making sense of reasoning isn't the theory itself but how and with whom it is communicated.

What can be done in two hours? A movie hasn't even finished, and a friends' gathering might only be halfway through. But in the early morning of March last year, Venezuela changed the course of a nation in just two hours—U.S. special forces suddenly acted, directly taking a sovereign country's leader from his sleep, without giving the market time to react. The speed of the entire event was absurd; many traders' screens hadn't even been turned on before everything was settled.

Napoleon was right: no conflict is truly about peace; at its core, it's a game of interests. Everyone's stance is different, and the world they see is completely different. We all live in history and will become part of history in the future. Judgments of right and wrong are left to time.

But there's a real question the market cares about: what does geopolitical risk really mean for gold? Will this turbulence push gold to break its all-time high? Compared to discussing what people in a certain country have for breakfast, investors are actually focused on this.

Once risk aversion is triggered, market panic will sensitively push up precious metal prices, and short-term gains in gold are guaranteed. But the question is, how long can this rise last—don't expect it to be too beautiful. The real factor that will determine whether gold can exit a bull market in 2026 is the policy inclination of the new Federal Reserve Chair. The pace and frequency of rate cuts are directly decided by this key figure, and this is the core driver behind large-scale price increases. The determination of the Fed's policy direction in January had a greater long-term impact on the market than any geopolitical event.

So, seemingly risky geopolitical surprises can heat up safe-haven assets in the short term, but the true bull market driver remains the invisible and intangible policy environment. Whether gold experiences a short-term crash or a long-term rise depends on how the Federal Reserve plays this game.

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CoffeeNFTs

· 52m ago

Everyone can see this short-term safe-haven rebound in gold, but in the long run, it still depends on how the Fed bunch plays... To put it plainly, geopolitical events are just a catalyst. The Federal Reserve's policies are the real market movers; whether 2026 is a bull or bear market entirely depends on their words. After short-term speculation, it's time to wake up and not be led around by geopolitical news. Rules are indeed made to constrain retail investors; those who understand are already planning their next move. In the face of interests, what principles are there to talk about... The market is the most honest.

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NFTHoarder

· 1h ago

Really, geopolitics is just a smokescreen. Retail investors chase after limit-ups, while the big players have already finished eating. Short-term risk aversion can indeed push gold higher, but don’t get caught off guard. The Fed guy is the real market maker; his words can make the market follow suit. That’s the game rules. So instead of fixating on sudden events, it’s better to study policy trends... But then again, who can really predict accurately? Rules always serve to constrain retail investors. How can those with money and power be bothered to compete with themselves? In 2 hours, a regime change, yet we’re stuck watching K-line charts all day. Isn’t that funny? Policy determines the long-term direction, but short-term fluctuations give us retail investors a chance to cut losses. As for gold this round... to be honest, I’m still bearish in the short term. I’ll wait for the Fed’s reaction before jumping in.

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EyeOfTheTokenStorm

· 6h ago

Short-term volatility is just fleeting; a single statement from the Fed can outweigh ten geopolitical events. This is the true logic behind bottoming out. Gold seems to suggest that risk assets are running, but in reality, it's just waiting for the confirmation of rate cut expectations. Don't be fooled by a two-hour news event. Rules? Those are always made for the disciplined; real opportunities are always in the unpredictable games of policy. Geopolitical risks are just a wave to trade, and according to my quantitative model, long-term returns still depend on how the Fed's game unfolds. Risk aversion is like a false breakout on the K-line; it tends to retrace. Don't chase highs—wait for technical confirmation before jumping in.

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NewDAOdreamer

· 01-06 11:21

At the end of the day, it's still the Fed folks calling the shots; geopolitical risks are just a smokescreen.

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ProofOfNothing

· 01-05 08:59

Short-term speculation is just speculation; in the end, it's all about the Fed's mood. That's right, geopolitical risks are just a catalyst; the true long-term logic still depends on policies. Changing a country in two hours... traders definitely didn't sleep that day. Can the recent rise in safe-haven assets hold until rate cuts are truly implemented? I'm a bit skeptical. You explained the rules so thoroughly, but they are never followed. Gold has risen in the short term, but don't get carried away; the key still depends on the Fed's game plan. It's just a game of利益, don't overthink right or wrong, just follow the money. This logical chain is clear: geopolitics is a smokescreen, the Fed is the real boss.

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just_here_for_vibes

· 01-05 08:58

To put it simply, geopolitical events are just a catalyst; the real focus is on how the Federal Reserve will play it. Policy is the key, and any surge in gold due to geopolitical risks will only last two or three days. This logic is clear: short-term panic drives prices up, but in the long run, it depends on the pace of interest rate cuts. The crucial point is the attitude of the new Federal Reserve Chair, which will determine how gold moves in 2026. Will it rise in the short term? Definitely. But can it turn into a bull market? That depends on the policy direction. Right now, it all depends on how the Federal Reserve makes its move; everything else is noise. So, a wave of risk aversion sentiment is being driven, but policy is the true engine. Two hours can change the fate of a nation... traders haven't even reacted before everything is set, it's crazy. Actually, the market's main concern is this point; all other discussions are a waste of time. The statement is correct, but whether gold can finally break through still depends on signals from the Federal Reserve.

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governance_lurker

· 01-05 08:56

Well said, rules are meant to be used to trap others; the formulators have long since run away. Geopolitical risk trading can be short-term, but don't expect it to last too long. The real game is the one played by the Federal Reserve. Two hours to overthrow a regime? The traders' screens didn't even light up before it was settled—this reaction speed is indeed incredible. It seems risky, but it's actually just policy playing around; gold's rise and fall are still controlled by the Federal Reserve. Talking logically, but the key is who you're talking to and how you say it—nonsense. Different stances mean different worlds. We're all pawns in history; the right or wrong is up to time to decide. Short-term risk aversion can give a push, but a long-term bull market? It depends on whether the Federal Reserve cuts rates or not; everything else is just white noise.

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PanicSeller

· 01-05 08:51

Basically, geopolitical risks are just short-term hype; real profits depend on how the Fed and those folks make decisions. In my opinion, the rules are inherently double standards—those with money and power don't have to follow them at all. Gold rises are just that—rises. But don't be fooled by this wave of risk aversion; policy measures are the real trump card. Overturning a country in two hours? Capitalism is like that—nothing is off-limits when it comes to interests. In the short term, you can chase risk aversion; in the long term, you still have to bet on the pace of rate cuts—that's the real golden key.

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MagicBean

· 01-05 08:46

Rewriting the fate of the nation in two hours, retail investors didn't even react... That's why I never chase short-term risk events. The real profit mechanism is on that piece of paper at the Federal Reserve; geopolitics is just a cover.

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