PENGU surges 47%: Can $0.0128 determine the success or failure of the Meme coin rebound

The Meme coin sector has experienced a collective rebound at the start of the new year, with Pudgy Penguins’ PENGU becoming the focus. Since January 1st, PENGU has risen by 47% cumulatively, with a single-day increase of up to 8.6%, far surpassing most small and mid-cap tokens during the same period. This surge is not an isolated phenomenon but a reflection of the overall recovery of the Meme coin sector. In a macro environment where the total market cap of altcoins has increased by 7.5%, PENGU’s performance stands out, but whether it can continue its upward trend depends on a key technical level.

From Difficulties to Rebound: PENGU’s Unexpected Turn

PENGU’s rebound does seem somewhat surprising. According to the latest news, this token still faces significant selling pressure at the end of 2025 and remains in a downward channel in the medium to long term. However, after entering 2026, the situation has changed markedly.

Price Performance Comparison

Currently, PENGU is trading at $0.012279, with a market cap of $771.86 million, ranking 74th in the cryptocurrency market. The 24-hour trading volume has reached $409.14 million, indicating a clear increase in market activity.

Positive Technical Signals

From a technical perspective, the bearish momentum for PENGU is weakening. The three-day chart shows that the downward trend since August last year is being challenged. Although volume and momentum indicators are still relatively weak, there are signs of marginal improvement. This suggests that selling pressure is gradually diminishing, and bulls are starting to enter.

$0.0128: The Turning Point

On the technical side, $0.0128 is regarded as a critical structural level. Whether this level is broken and held will determine the medium-term trend of PENGU.

Key Technical Levels

Based on analysis, PENGU’s key price levels are as follows:

• Resistance: $0.0128 (critical breakout point)
• Upward targets: $0.016 and $0.022 (corresponding to previous significant trading zones)
• Support: $0.0105–$0.0110 (short-term confirmation zone)
• Stop-loss reference: below $0.0105 (may signal end of rebound)

If PENGU can effectively break through and stabilize above $0.0128, it will indicate a shift from a bearish to a bullish medium-term trend, providing new entry signals for short-term and swing traders. In this scenario, $0.016 and $0.022 will become potential targets.

Two Possible Short-term Trends

From the 4-hour chart, PENGU has broken through the previous consolidation range, with short-term buying pressure clearly present. However, there is bearish divergence, implying that a pullback to the $0.0110–$0.0115 zone for confirmation is possible. This is a normal technical adjustment process; traders should be alert but not overly interpret it.

Collective Celebration in the Meme Coin Sector

PENGU’s strength is not an isolated case but reflects the overall recovery of the Meme coin sector. According to the latest data, Meme coins have gained between 6.23% and 6.74% over the past 24 hours, with PEPE up 13.67% and BONK up 21.27%. The NFT sector also performed well, rising 6.17%, with PENGU in the NFT sector increasing by 13.63%.

Behind this rebound are two factors: first, Bitcoin breaking through $93,000, boosting overall market risk appetite; second, the sideways movement of mainstream coins causing capital spillover, prompting investors to seek gains in small and mid-cap tokens.

Risks Cannot Be Ignored: BTC Dependency

Although PENGU is performing strongly, caution is still advised due to systemic risks. The current Meme coin market largely depends on Bitcoin’s performance. If BTC experiences a significant correction, market volatility could rapidly increase, and PENGU may not be able to remain unaffected.

Analysis indicates that, especially given the still-weak medium-term outlook for Bitcoin, chasing high risks should be approached with caution. This means PENGU’s upward movement is conditional, relying on continued support from BTC.

Summary

PENGU’s 47% increase reflects a phase of recovery in the Meme coin sector, but whether this trend can continue hinges on the performance of the $0.0128 technical level. If it successfully breaks through and stabilizes above this level, PENGU’s upward structure could further strengthen, with subsequent targets at the $0.016–$0.022 range. Conversely, if it falls below $0.0105, it may signal the end of this rebound.

Overall, PENGU is at a critical turning point. The short-term momentum is clearly bullish, but traders should keep a close eye on BTC’s movements. Since Meme coins often lack fundamental support and are driven purely by sentiment and capital flows, quick reactions and strict stop-loss discipline are essential for participation.