#数字资产动态追踪 The prediction market has been turbulent this year. In early 2026, a new account on a major prediction platform played a hand, betting $30,000 on the Venezuelan political situation, and ended up turning it into over $400,000, with a return of more than 12 times. Sounds exciting, but this also exposed a problem—the severity of information asymmetry in an unlicensed model. In comparison, those platforms that follow compliant routes, although potentially more complicated to operate, are at least more transparent and have better risk control. Will this incident become a turning point that divides the two types of platforms? Industry insiders are watching.