Bitcoin's Current Surge and the Cycle Behind the Crypto Bull Run

Bitcoin is hitting new milestones, and for good reason. As of early 2026, BTC trades around $92.73K with an all-time high of $126.08K within reach. But what drives these explosive moves? Understanding Bitcoin’s cyclical patterns—from the 2013 rally to today’s institutional-backed bull run—reveals the mechanics behind the crypto bull run and what investors should expect next.

The Anatomy of a Crypto Bull Run

A bull run in Bitcoin isn’t just about price jumping. It’s a convergence of technical momentum, supply constraints, and macro sentiment. When Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks above 70, when 50-day and 200-day moving averages align bullishly, and when on-chain metrics show accumulation rather than distribution—that’s when a genuine upswing begins.

The data tells the story: Bitcoin’s trading volume surges, wallet activity intensifies, stablecoin inflows to exchanges spike, and institutional holdings expand. These signals working in tandem create the perfect storm for sustained price appreciation.

How Supply Scarcity Fuels Market Rallies

Bitcoin’s architecture contains a built-in mechanism that naturally triggers bull runs: the halving cycle. Every four years, mining rewards drop by 50%, instantly reducing Bitcoin’s issuance rate. History shows this works:

• 2012 Halving Impact: Bitcoin jumped 5,200% post-event
• 2016 Halving Impact: A 315% rally followed
• 2020 Halving Impact: 230% gains materialized
• 2024 Halving Impact: Occurred in April, setting the stage for the current rally

The logic is simple—less new supply hitting markets while demand remains constant creates upward pressure. The 2024 halving coincided with another catalyst: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF approval, which opened the floodgates for traditional finance.

The 2013 Breakthrough: Bitcoin’s First Major Move

Bitcoin’s initial bull run started small. In May 2013, BTC traded near $145. By December, it had rocketed to $1,200—a 730% gain. What drove it? Early media attention, the Cyprus banking crisis (which made decentralized assets attractive), and growing tech community adoption.

The downside came fast. Mt. Gox, which processed 70% of Bitcoin transactions at the time, suffered a catastrophic hack. BTC collapsed 75%, falling below $300 by 2014. The lesson: infrastructure matters, and market sentiment can reverse just as quickly as it builds.

The 2017 Explosion: Retail Enters the Arena

2017 remains cryptocurrency’s most talked-about year. Bitcoin moved from $1,000 in January to nearly $20,000 by December—a 1,900% rally. Daily trading volume exploded from under $200 million to over $15 billion.

What changed? ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings) went mainstream, user-friendly exchanges proliferated, and retail investors entered en masse. Media coverage created a feedback loop: price rises → headlines spread → more buyers arrive → prices rise further.

The collapse was equally dramatic. By December 2018, Bitcoin had fallen 84% to $3,200. Regulatory crackdowns, particularly from China (which banned ICOs and exchanges), triggered the selloff. The takeaway: retail-driven rallies can be powerful but volatile.

2020-2021: Institutions Arrive with “Digital Gold” Narrative

The tone shifted entirely in 2020-2021. Bitcoin moved from $8,000 to $64,000—a 700% gain—but this time, the story was different. High-profile companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square began allocating corporate treasuries to Bitcoin. Institutional Bitcoin holdings exceeded 10 billion by 2021.

Why did institutions suddenly care? Inflation concerns, near-zero interest rates, and COVID-era fiscal stimulus made Bitcoin’s fixed 21-million supply increasingly attractive as a hedge. Bitcoin futures and ETFs in non-U.S. jurisdictions provided regulated entry points.

The narrative shifted from “digital currency” to “digital gold”—a store of value, not a payment method. This fundamental reframing attracted a different class of investor with longer time horizons.

The 2024-2025 Bull Run: ETF Approval Meets Halving

Today’s rally looks different again. Bitcoin has moved from $40,000 in January 2024 to $92.73K today—a 132% gain in under 12 months. Two major catalysts aligned:

Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval (January 2024): The U.S. SEC greenlighting Bitcoin ETFs was transformational. By November 2024, cumulative inflows exceeded $28 billion. Major players like BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) hold over 467,000 BTC. Compare this to gold ETFs—Bitcoin ETFs have now overtaken them in inflows, a historic milestone.

April 2024 Halving: Right on schedule, Bitcoin’s fourth halving cut mining rewards. Historically, this reduces supply pressure and has preceded every major rally. Developers and investors positioned ahead of this event.

Political Tailwinds: Rhetoric around Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset gained traction. Proposals like the BITCOIN Act of 2024 (advocating the U.S. Treasury acquire 1 million BTC over five years) signaled potential government-level adoption. Countries like Bhutan (13,000+ BTC) and El Salvador (5,875 BTC) have already integrated Bitcoin into national reserves.

The current price of $92.73K, while impressive, still sits below the $126.08K all-time high. This gap suggests room for further upside as institutional adoption deepens.

Reading the On-Chain Signals

Sophisticated traders don’t just watch price charts. They monitor what’s happening on Bitcoin’s blockchain:

Exchange Reserve Levels: When Bitcoin sitting on exchanges drops, it signals holders are moving coins to self-custody—a bullish sign of conviction. Currently, institutional accumulation continues.

Stablecoin Activity: Large stablecoin inflows to trading platforms indicate dry powder waiting to deploy. When this money moves to buy Bitcoin, it fuels the rally.

Whale Wallets: Tracking accumulation by large holders reveals insider sentiment. MicroStrategy, for instance, has been aggressively buying throughout 2024, now holding thousands of additional BTC compared to 2021.

Transaction Volume: When both price and on-chain transaction volume rise together, it confirms the move isn’t just speculative—real value is being transferred.

What Could Trigger the Next Leg Up?

Several catalysts remain on the table:

Government Adoption: If the U.S. or other major economies formalize Bitcoin as a reserve asset, demand could spike exponentially. Bhutan’s success demonstrates viability.

Bitcoin Layer-2 Solutions: Proposed upgrades like OP_CAT could enable Bitcoin to handle thousands of transactions per second via Layer-2 protocols. This would expand use cases beyond store-of-value into DeFi territory, potentially competing with Ethereum.

Increased Regulation and Clarity: Paradoxically, clearer regulatory frameworks could attract conservative institutional capital that’s currently sidelined due to uncertainty.

Economic Turmoil: Geopolitical tensions, currency crises, or inflation resurgence could drive flight-to-quality demand for Bitcoin’s fixed supply.

How to Prepare for the Next Move

Whether you’re already holding Bitcoin or considering entry, actionable steps matter:

1. Establish Your Thesis: Why do you believe in Bitcoin’s future? Is it digital gold, inflation hedge, technological revolution, or a combination? Your thesis guides position sizing and holding periods.

2. Dollar-Cost Average: Rather than timing the market perfectly, commit to regular purchases. This smooths out volatility and removes emotion.

3. Secure Your Holdings: Use hardware wallets for significant holdings. Exchange hacks and security breaches remain real risks. Self-custody eliminates counterparty risk.

4. Diversify Beyond Bitcoin: While Bitcoin’s dominance is strong, exposure to other cryptocurrencies, traditional assets, and alternative investments reduces portfolio risk.

5. Stay Informed on Macro Trends: Interest rates, inflation data, geopolitical events, and regulatory announcements move Bitcoin. Follow reputable sources and adjust positioning accordingly.

6. Avoid FOMO Trading: Bull runs attract retail speculation. When everyone’s talking about Bitcoin at the dinner table, history suggests caution is warranted. Greed before crashes; wisdom during quiet periods.

7. Tax Planning: Understand your jurisdiction’s crypto tax rules. Profits from bull runs carry tax consequences that should be accounted for.

The Halving Cycle Never Dies

Bitcoin’s next halving occurs around 2028. History suggests this will precede another explosive phase. As the number of halvings approaches the final one (projected around 2140), scarcity becomes ever more concentrated.

Late-stage halvings will reduce new supply to negligible levels, potentially making older coins the primary circulating asset. This dynamic has no parallel in traditional finance—no government bond experiences scheduled supply cuts. It’s uniquely bullish for long-term Bitcoin holders.

Final Thoughts: Timing Isn’t Everything

Bitcoin’s crypto bull run history shows that timing the exact bottom and top is nearly impossible. The 2013 bull run preceded a 75% crash. The 2017 rally ended in an 84% decline. The 2020-2021 surge faced a 53% correction midway.

Yet despite these drawdowns, Bitcoin recovered every time and reached new all-time highs. This isn’t guaranteed—no asset is—but the pattern is clear: holding through volatility has rewarded patience.

The current bull run at $92.73K, approaching the $126.08K ATH, represents another chapter in Bitcoin’s ongoing adoption story. Whether you participate passively through ETFs, actively through trading, or not at all, understanding these cycles helps you make informed decisions aligned with your risk tolerance and financial goals.

Bitcoin’s next move remains uncertain, but one thing is certain: the forces driving bull runs—supply constraints, institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and macro demand—continue to strengthen. Stay prepared, stay informed, and approach volatility as opportunity rather than threat.