#数字资产动态追踪 BTC Market 1-Hour Level Observation: Potential Reversal Point in a Consolidation Pattern

Recently, I’ve been closely monitoring BTC’s hourly chart combined with on-chain data performance, and here are some key points:

**Technical Details**

Currently, the price is stuck around 92,663, closely hugging the upper Bollinger Band (93,387), but the 1-hour candlesticks are frequently closing with small bodies — indicating a struggle between bulls and bears near 93,000. The Bollinger Bands are flattening, and volatility is noticeably narrowing, which is a typical sign of an impending trend reversal.

On the MACD, the DIF remains at 428.3, above DEA at 419.6, which looks decent. However, the MACD histogram is only 17.4, showing diminishing momentum, so caution is needed for potential hourly bearish divergence.

Volume has not significantly increased; retail traders are mostly on the sidelines. However, the volume exceeding the 5-day average suggests that large funds are quietly accumulating.

**On-Chain Data Support**

According to on-chain tracking data, there has been a net outflow of about 12,000 BTC from exchanges in the past 24 hours. Large addresses continue to accumulate, with selling mainly from short-term holders, while long-term holders’ positions remain stable.

Perpetual contract funding rates stay at moderate levels, with no signs of extreme sentiment, and leverage liquidations are relatively healthy.

**Macro and Industry Drivers**

The Federal Reserve’s dovish comments are frequent, and many institutions have submitted applications for spot ETF extensions, improving liquidity expectations. Ethereum’s Layer 2 ecosystem has surpassed the $100 billion lock-up mark, which also boosts BTC’s demand as a store of value.

**Short to Medium-Term Logic**

In the short term (1 to 3 days), if BTC can hold above 93,000 and break through the upper Bollinger Band with increased volume, the next resistance levels are around 94,000 to 95,000. Conversely, a break below the middle band at 92,000 could lead to a pullback to 90,600 (Bollinger lower band) for support.

In the medium term, on-chain accumulation trends remain intact. Any significant correction is worth building multiple long positions. The target price remains above 100,000 USD as a reasonable expectation.

**Trading Strategy**

Place buy orders in batches below 92,000, with a stop-loss at 90,800. Once the price breaks above 93,500, add to positions. The key is to manage risk-reward ratios and avoid chasing highs or selling lows.

$BTC