The first week of the new year, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda sent a clear signal to the market: as long as inflation and economic performance meet expectations, interest rate hikes will continue. This statement sounds straightforward, but the underlying complexity is far beyond imagination.

In his speech to the banking industry, he emphasized that external shocks (such as U.S. tariff threats) will not change the BOJ's course—if the data supports it, rate hikes will move forward. Last month, the policy rate was raised to 0.75%, reaching a 30-year high. This sounds impressive, but there is a twist: real interest rates are actually still in negative territory because inflation has exceeded the BOJ's 2% target for nearly four consecutive years.

On the data front, the 10-year government bond yield recently surged to 2.125%, also a 27-year high. The yen has plummeted, pushing up import costs and intensifying inflationary pressures. Some central bank officials have already begun advocating for "gradual rate hikes."

The question is: is this a normal cycle of policy normalization, or a warning sign that some bubbles in the financial system are about to burst? Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki also spoke at the same time, saying Japan is at a critical juncture to escape deflation and move toward growth. But can this gamble really be won? For assets like BTC and ETH, Japan's rate hike cycle could mean risk assets face re-pricing.