BTC Cycle Code: Analyzing Historical Patterns to Identify the Next Opportunity in the Crypto Bull Market

Since its inception in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced multiple complete market cycles. Each crypto bull market has brought unprecedented growth and broken people’s boundaries of understanding regarding digital assets. To understand Bitcoin’s future trajectory, one must first comprehend the recurring patterns in history.

What is the core driving force behind crypto bull markets?

Defining a true BTC bull market requires three elements:

Exponential price increases are just superficial; behind them are perfect overlaps of supply constraints, institutional innovation, and capital inflows. Bitcoin halving events are the most规律性的 triggers—approximately every four years, Bitcoin’s mining rewards are halved, directly reducing supply growth.

Historical data proves this:

• After the 2012 halving, BTC surged by 5200%
• After the 2016 halving, BTC surged by 315%
• After the 2020 halving, BTC surged by 230%

But halving alone is not enough to drive the entire cycle. A genuine crypto bull market also requires stories, policy support, and capital resonance. The 2024-2025 cycle is completely different—it is the first time in history driven by institutional-grade financial products (spot ETFs).

2024: The new ETF era rewrites the rules

From January to November, Bitcoin climbed from $40,000 to $93,000, a cumulative increase of 132%. The main driver behind this is not retail enthusiasm but the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the US SEC.

Data speaks:

• As of November, ETF net inflows exceeded $4.5 billion
• BlackRock(BlackRock)'s IBIT fund holdings surpassed 467,000 BTC
• Total holdings of all spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded 1 million BTC
• ETF daily trading volume has surpassed that of gold ETFs

What does this mean? Institutional capital from traditional finance can now allocate Bitcoin as easily as buying stocks. Assets once exclusive to geeks and adventurers are now displayed on Wall Street traders’ terminals.

Meanwhile, the April halving further reinforced supply tightness expectations. Listed companies like MicroStrategy and institutional investors have bought thousands of BTC throughout the year, which have disappeared from circulating markets. On-chain data shows continuous decline in exchange reserves, indicating holders are reluctant to sell.

How to identify genuine signals of a crypto bull market

Price alone is not enough. Crypto bull markets have their own “biometrics”:

Technical indicators: RSI (Relative Strength Index) breaking above 70 indicates strong buying pressure. In 2024, BTC triggered this signal multiple times, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages crossing upward confirming the start of an uptrend.

On-chain data:

• Wallet activity surging—new addresses hitting record highs
• Stablecoin inflows into exchanges—signaling “preparing to enter”
• Large holders’ holdings increasing—institutions and whales accumulating rather than liquidating

Macro environment:

• Policy friendliness: US political stance shifting from “regulation” to “competition”
• Geopolitics: some countries accelerating digital asset reserves (Bhutan, El Salvador)
• Economic cycle: changing inflation expectations and interest rate environments

2013: The initial frenzy

Bitcoin rose from $145 to $1200, a 730% increase. This was the first collision between internet culture and financial markets.

The Cyprus banking crisis unintentionally accelerated this—people first realized that fiat currency could be frozen. Bitcoin’s fully decentralized nature suddenly became an attractive safe haven.

But the Mt. Gox collapse abruptly ended this bull run. The exchange, handling 70% of Bitcoin trading volume, disappeared in 2014 after a hacker attack, causing BTC to fall 75%. The lesson was profound: the fragility of liquidity infrastructure can easily destroy market confidence.

2017: The era of retail investors

From $1,000 to $20,000, a 1900% increase. This time, the push came from the ICO wave—various new projects raising funds through token issuance, attracting millions of newcomers.

Simultaneously, exchanges evolved to make participation extremely easy. User-friendly interfaces, low fees, ubiquitous mobile apps—crypto trading shifted from geek playgrounds to everyday conversations.

Every family gathering had someone discussing Bitcoin. Media frenzy amplified this, creating a positive feedback loop. But this prosperity was fragile; regulatory warnings began to surface. China banned ICOs and crypto exchanges, prompting global regulators to follow suit. As a result, early 2018, BTC dropped from $20,000 to $3,200, an 84% decline.

This bull market taught the market a lesson: price increases without fundamentals cannot last.

2020-2021: Institutional entry

BTC surged from $8,000 to $64,000 (later reaching $69,000), a rise of over 700%. This time, it was entirely different—driven by strategic allocations from top global companies.

MicroStrategy, Tesla, Square, and other tech giants incorporated Bitcoin into their financial statements. Pension funds began exploring the concept of “digital gold.” Over 100 companies in the S&P 500 considered or held Bitcoin.

The unlimited QE triggered by COVID-19 fueled fears of inflation. In a zero-interest-rate environment, Bitcoin, which does not generate cash flow, became a safe haven. This bull market had a more solid foundation—it signified a fundamental shift in asset allocation paradigms.

But it was not immune to corrections. The drop from $64,000 to $30,000 reminded everyone that even “digital gold” can be volatile. Environmental criticisms of mining and regulatory pressures added real stress.

How will the future crypto bull market evolve?

Possibility of government reserves: Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed that the US Treasury buy 1 million BTC over five years. If realized, this would be a historic turning point—not a fantasy of “Bitcoin as money,” but official federal recognition.

Bhutan has held over 13,000 BTC through its sovereign fund, and El Salvador owns 5,875 BTC. This is no longer an isolated risk-taking by some countries but the beginning of a trend.

Benefits of technological upgrades: Restarting OP_CAT code could enable Bitcoin to gain Layer-2 scalability. In theory, Bitcoin could process thousands of transactions per second and natively support DeFi applications. This means Bitcoin is not just “digital gold” but can also become a programmable store of value.

Acceleration of product innovation: Spot ETFs are just the beginning. Bitcoin futures, Bitcoin funds, Bitcoin-linked bonds… more traditional financial products will incorporate this asset class. Each new product opens a new door for capital.

How to position yourself in 2026

Currently, BTC is priced at $92.78K, with a 24-hour increase of +1.52%, and a 3.76% gain year-to-date. The all-time high of $126.08K still leaves about 35% room for growth.

Advice for ordinary investors:

1. Educate yourself: Bitcoin is not digital gambling but a complete economic philosophy. Understanding its supply mechanism, technical roadmap, and macro background is essential for rational decisions.

2. Dollar-cost averaging: Avoid trying to time the market precisely. Use DCA or phased accumulation to spread risk, especially in high-price environments.

3. Choose trusted platforms: Exchange security is paramount. Ensure the platform uses cold wallets, 2FA authentication, and regular security audits.

4. Self-custody wallets: For long-term holdings, store in hardware wallets. Exchanges are just entry points, not safes.

5. Monitor key events:

   • Next halving (2028)
   • US policy developments (government reserves)
   • On-chain whale movements
   • Global regulatory progress

6. Risk management: Set stop-loss points to avoid emotional trading. Market volatility often accompanies extreme pessimism or optimism; rationality is the rarest trait.

7. Tax planning: Cryptocurrency tax laws vary greatly across regions. Consult professionals in advance to optimize tax efficiency legally.

Conclusion: Cycles will continue, but rules are changing

Bitcoin’s history is a story of moving from the fringes to the center. From geek experiments to an economic hedge tool, from retail playgrounds to standard institutional asset allocation—each cycle rewrites part of the rules.

The 2024-2025 cycle is different from previous ones. Its greatest innovation is not technological breakthrough but制度创新—spot ETFs allowing millions of ordinary investors to allocate Bitcoin as easily as stocks or funds. This is a significant milestone in financial democratization.

Where will the next turning point be? When government reserve policies are implemented? When OP_CAT is truly activated? Or during the next halving cycle?

No one can predict precisely. But history shows that investors who do their homework and prepare well can seize opportunities during cycle transitions.

The key is to understand the规律 of cycles, not to chase the hype of the moment.