Look at the theorists in the crypto circle, some arguing for short positions with thousands of different justifications, sounding very convincing; there are also many who advocate for long positions, even more elaborate, sometimes even creating arguments like "If you don't believe in Bitcoin, what are you doing in the crypto space?" But ultimately, the market is the only true test.

All analysis and predictions are essentially dealing with something fundamentally uncertain. Since the market itself is full of uncertainty, all theoretical systems are like castles in the air — no matter how sophisticated, they are bound to be proven wrong by the market. So you'll find that no matter how you analyze, the probability of making money is fundamentally a 50/50 chance.

Since it's a 50/50 chance, might as well go all in. There's nothing to hesitate about — either profit or lose, the game is that simple. I personally have a black swan phobia, which makes me even more decisive — if I’m going to bet, I bet on Bitcoin's decline. I am already fully short at 3100 points, and I feel pretty good about it so far. Let’s see how the market moves.