When Bitcoin's Next Rally Peaks: Decoding Bull Runs in Crypto Through 4 Historic Cycles

Since 2009, Bitcoin has orchestrated a series of market explosions that redefined investor expectations and reshaped the financial landscape. These bull run in crypto episodes follow distinctive patterns—each triggered by different catalysts, each leaving permanent marks on how we perceive digital assets. The current 2024-2025 cycle reveals something unprecedented: the seamless integration of traditional finance into Bitcoin’s DNA.

The Current Bull Run in Crypto Rewrites the Playbook

Bitcoin is trading at $92.78K as of January 2026, having climbed from $40,000 at the start of 2024—a 132% surge that challenges comparisons to previous cycles. What separates this rally from its predecessors?

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the U.S. SEC in January 2024 opened institutional floodgates. These regulated products eliminated the friction that previously kept conservative investors away. By November 2024, spot Bitcoin ETF cumulative inflows had exceeded $28 billion, surpassing gold ETFs in the global market. The numbers tell the story: BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone accumulated over 467,000 BTC, while all Bitcoin ETFs combined held over 1 billion BTC.

Simultaneously, Bitcoin’s April 2024 halving halved mining rewards, compressing supply precisely when institutional demand peaked. This convergence—regulatory greenlight plus supply shock—created the ideal environment for explosive growth.

Tracing Bitcoin’s Previous Bull Runs in Crypto: Pattern Recognition

2013: The $1,200 Shock

Bitcoin’s first mainstream surge happened almost accidentally. The Cyprus banking crisis spooked depositors toward alternative assets. Bitcoin climbed from $145 in May to $1,200 by December—a staggering 730% gain. But this rally exposed vulnerabilities: Mt. Gox exchange, handling 70% of all transactions, imploded in early 2014, triggering a 75% crash and years of pain.

2017: Retail Mania Unleashed

The ICO explosion changed everything. Suddenly, launching projects meant issuing tokens, attracting millions of new speculators. Bitcoin rocketed from $1,000 in January to $20,000 by December—a 1,900% ascent. Daily trading volume exploded from under $200 million to over $15 billion. The mainstream media obsession created self-reinforcing feedback loops: higher prices attracted more headlines, which attracted more buyers.

But regulatory crackdowns followed. China banned ICOs and domestic exchanges. The SEC expressed skepticism. By December 2018, Bitcoin had collapsed 84% from its peak—a harsh correction that separated conviction investors from FOMO traders.

2020-2021: Institutions Arrive

MicroStrategy, Square, and Tesla announced massive Bitcoin allocations. Suddenly, Fortune 500 companies treated Bitcoin as treasury assets rather than speculative bets. The narrative shifted to “digital gold”—an inflation hedge during pandemic stimulus spending. Bitcoin climbed from $8,000 in January 2020 to $64,000 by April 2021, a 700% rally. Institutional BTC holdings surpassed $10 billion.

Bitcoin futures launched. ETFs appeared in jurisdictions outside the U.S. The market infrastructure matured. When the correction came (a 53% drop to $30,000), institutional holders actually accumulated rather than panicked.

Reading the Signals Before the Next Cycle Accelerates

Technical analysis provides early warning systems. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbing above 70 signals strong momentum—exactly what happened during 2024-2025. The 50-day and 200-day moving average crossovers confirmed bullish structure.

But on-chain metrics reveal investor behavior more honestly. Rising stablecoin exchange inflows indicate fresh capital preparing to buy. Declining Bitcoin reserves on major exchanges suggest accumulation phases. In 2024, while retail investors watched price action, institutions quietly added positions: MicroStrategy and other companies purchased thousands of BTC, tightening supplies further.

Macro factors matter too. Regulatory clarity—like the SEC’s ETF approval—removes uncertainty premiums. Government monetary policies influence whether capital flows toward speculative assets like Bitcoin or defensive positions.

The Supply Constraint That Powers Bull Runs in Crypto

Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million coin supply creates artificial scarcity. Every four years, halving events automatically reduce mining rewards, cutting new supply generation in half. This mechanism has historically triggered bull runs:

• 2012 halving preceded a 5,200% rally
• 2016 halving preceded a 315% increase
• 2020 halving preceded a 230% gain
• 2024 halving (April) set the stage for the current cycle reaching $92.78K

As global Bitcoin ETF holdings exceed 1 billion BTC and governments (Bhutan, El Salvador) add Bitcoin to reserves, available supply on public exchanges shrinks. This scarcity mirrors how gold appreciation works—constrained supply meeting expanding demand.

Future Catalysts Powering the Next Bull Runs in Crypto

Strategic Reserve Narratives

Senator Cynthia Lummis’s BITCOIN Act of 2024 proposes the U.S. Treasury acquire 1 million BTC over five years. If enacted, this creates unprecedented demand legitimacy—Bitcoin as official U.S. strategic asset. Bhutan’s accumulated 13,000 BTC (surpassing El Salvador’s 5,875) demonstrates that governments view Bitcoin similarly to gold reserves.

Layer-2 and DeFi Expansion

The potential resurrection of OP_CAT code could enable Bitcoin Layer-2 solutions, allowing thousands of transactions per second. This transforms Bitcoin from a static store-of-value into a DeFi platform, directly competing with Ethereum. Transaction fee revenue replaces mining rewards as halvings continue—fundamentally strengthening network economics.

Regulated Product Proliferation

Beyond spot ETFs, mutual funds, Bitcoin-linked bonds, and other traditional financial vehicles will continue emerging. Each new product attracts different investor classes, broadening the capital base funding Bitcoin rallies.

Building Your Bull Run in Crypto Playbook

1. Monitor Halving Cycles and Supply Flows

Bitcoin’s next halving occurs in 2028. As supply tightens and institutional holdings grow, smaller price movements trigger larger percentage swings. Track entity holdings through on-chain data rather than price charts alone.

2. Understand Regulatory Windows

The 2024-2025 approval of spot ETFs created the conditions for this rally. Future regulatory milestones (government reserve purchases, clearer custody standards, staking frameworks) will signal the next acceleration phase.

3. Distinguish Between Infrastructure and Speculation

The 2017 rally peaked on retail euphoria and leveraged positions. The 2024 rally builds on institutional deposits, ETF inflows, and corporate treasury additions. Infrastructure strength typically precedes sustained rallies rather than sudden crashes.

4. Prepare Before the Rally Intensifies

Use quiet periods to establish exchange accounts with verified identity documentation, test security protocols, and understand tax implications. When volatility spikes, moving funds becomes risky. The wealthy prepare infrastructure before opportunities peak.

5. Track Catalysts, Not Just Price

Monitor SEC filings for institutional Bitcoin purchases, watch central bank policy shifts, follow legislative developments like the BITCOIN Act, and observe exchange reserve flows. These leading indicators precede price movements.

The Asymmetry Opportunity in Bull Runs in Crypto

Bitcoin’s current trajectory—$92.78K with historical all-time high at $126.08K—suggests upside remains despite the 132% year-to-date gain. Yet the downside extends to $67.81 (the historical low relative to current supply and adoption).

This asymmetry creates asymmetric risk-reward: the percentage of retail wealth exposed to Bitcoin remains tiny (most portfolios still hold zero), while regulatory and technical tailwinds appear strengthening. Previous bull runs that seemed “expensive” at their peaks (2013’s $1,200, 2017’s $20,000) would trade for multiples of those levels within cycles.

Understanding Bitcoin’s cyclical nature—driven by halving events, institutional adoption waves, and regulatory pivots—reveals that predicting exact peaks remains impossible. But identifying bull run conditions through supply metrics, institutional flows, and macro catalysts provides a framework for positioning ahead of the crowd.

The next rally will likely blend elements of all previous cycles: the speculative fervor of 2017, the institutional substance of 2020-2021, and the regulatory clarity of 2024-2025. By staying vigilant toward supply, demand, and macro signals, investors can recognize when Bitcoin’s next bull run in crypto begins—and position accordingly before the crowd catches up.