This market has a common problem—retail investors are constantly watching various small coins dance, afraid of missing a round of explosive growth. But the real threat often isn't on the candlestick charts.

The following topic may be harsh, but it must be said: the US debt refinancing in 2026 is a ticking time bomb, and its impact on global asset allocation will far exceed your imagination.

The data is right here. Among the US publicly held government bonds, nearly 33% are due to mature in 2025-2026. In 2026 alone, at least $4.1 trillion in debt will need to be rolled over—understood from another perspective, it's equivalent to one-quarter of our country's annual GDP needing refinancing. The problem is, these debts were borrowed during a zero-interest-rate era, and now interest rates have soared above 4%, doubling the interest costs.

The government's options are limited: either raise taxes to squeeze the public, excessively print money, or borrow new funds to pay off old debts and continue the snowball effect. Whatever path is chosen, the result will be a significant drain on global liquidity. The crypto market relies on liquidity; without enough funds to support it, prices will naturally struggle to hold.

Let's compare with history. The massive liquidity injection in 2020 fueled a crypto bull market. By 2022, as interest rate hikes began, the market experienced a sharp decline. This time, the fiscal pressure is much more severe than in 2022—debt refinancing is a rigid requirement, unavoidable. Over the next decade, US annual interest expenses are expected to continue rising from the current near $1 trillion, and the government's ammunition for market rescue and stability will become noticeably tighter.

What should be done? I suggest three strategies:

First, stay away from high-leverage and overvalued altcoins, and reduce leverage on contract positions. Risk assets are most vulnerable during liquidity contraction periods.

Second, focus on mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, and allocate some projects with real-world applications—such as cross-border payments and decentralized storage—these sectors have consistent demand in any cycle.

Finally, keep sufficient cash reserves. 2026 might be a window for a deep dip and bottom-fishing; being prepared in advance with ammunition will allow you to act at the critical moment.

Ultimately, the crypto market cannot escape the macroeconomic environment. Don't be fooled by short-term hot topics; those voices that make you chase the trend while ignoring risks are either lacking economic understanding or have other motives.