短期反弹 vs 长期看衰：市场到底怎么走

2026-01-05 10:38:09

【比推】有意思的一个观察：眼下一月份看起来会有一波短期的反弹，流动性开始回温，底部的味道挺足的。但要说长期呢，从交易量和手续费这些指标来看，其实逻辑是反的——市场整体还是萧条状态，周期上还在往下走。这就是当下的纠结之处。

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LightningClicker

· 01-08 08:31

Short-term rebound is a scam, with such low fees, still hyping the bottom? Wake up, everyone.

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 01-08 08:05

Short-term rebounds are really just a sedative; don't be fooled. The foundation is still rotten. --- Is liquidity returning? Just look at the trading volume—it's all fake. It's about time to face reality. --- This is what you call a dead cat bounce. Rebounds are rebounds, but the long-term trend is still breaking down. --- Is the bottom feeling strong? Ha, it looks more like a repeated bottoming pattern. Long-term bearishness is correct. --- It’s always the same. As soon as there's a rebound, people start fantasizing, forgetting how much they've lost. --- Even after paying fees, you still have the nerve to talk about the bottom. Wake up, everyone. --- What are you hesitating for? When two logic conflicts, it just means there's no bottom. Keep going down.

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ValidatorViking

· 01-08 05:18

yeah this is exactly the validator's dilemma right now... liquidity bounce vs network fundamentals telling a different story. transaction fees collapsing while everyone chases the january pump? classic fork in the road moment. the consensus finality metrics aren't lying though—infrastructure tells the real tale when noise settles.

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SolidityJester

· 01-05 11:08

Short-term rebounds are just a sedative; don't be fooled. Transaction fees have dropped to this level. --- Liquidity warming up? I think it's just funds betting on a rebound. The underlying logic hasn't changed. --- This is called a rebound trap. After cutting the leeks in January, it continues downward. --- Trading volume is the real truth. Those hyping a rebound just want to dump. --- If the cycle is heading down, then just go down. The rebound is only a sacrificial offering. --- So it's still a bear market. Don't be fooled by short-term fluctuations. --- The bottom feels enough? That's probably a stench of decay. Transaction fees are clearly written out. --- Long-term bearishness is correct. Treat short-term rebounds as a bottom-fishing opportunity. Don't take it too seriously. --- It's the same old trick: first lure in the longs, then dump the market. Old routine. --- Liquidity warming up is just an illusion. Looking at trading volume, you can tell if the market is dead or not.

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ZKProofster

· 01-05 11:05

nah this is exactly the problem tho—everyone's watching the bounce while the on-chain metrics literally scream the opposite direction. technically speaking, liquidity spikes mean nothing if your actual transaction volume's dead. people keep confusing price action with proof of health, tbh.

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airdrop_huntress

· 01-05 11:03

A short-term rebound is just a temporary flash of light; in the long run, we still need to face reality.

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QuorumVoter