Recently reviewed a report on global digital asset inflows in 2025, totaling $47.2 billion. At first glance, it seems lower than last year's peak, and many have started to turn pessimistic. But I took a closer look at the underlying structure behind the numbers and found that the situation is much more complex than the surface figures suggest.

From a different perspective, capital is undergoing strategic migration, and this market is far from reaching its top.

**Does the decline in the US share really mean a recession?**

US inflows decreased by 12% year-over-year. This number might seem a bit painful at first glance. But look at how other regions are performing: Germany shifted from a $43 million outflow directly to a $2.5 billion inflow, and Canada changed from a $600 million outflow to an $1.1 billion inflow. This is not a minor adjustment; it's an explosion. What does this imply? Regulatory compliance and institutional deployment are expanding globally, no longer driven solely by the US. The new capital inflows in Europe and Canada are enough to offset the slowdown in the US. This is market rotation, a healthy sign.

**Is the decline in Bitcoin funds a sign of bearish sentiment?**

Bitcoin inflows indeed dropped by 35%. This number sounds alarming at first. But if you look at products related to shorting, they only received a total inflow of $105 million, which is a very small proportion, and the total AUM is just $139 million. What does this indicate? The selling pressure mainly comes from short-term arbitrageurs and emotional volatility, not a structural bearish trend. On-chain data further clarifies the picture—exchange reserves are continuously decreasing, large whale addresses are increasing holdings, and long-term holders are not loosening their chips. At this price level, support strength should not be underestimated.

**How to assess this situation?**

My approach is to combine three dimensions: macro environment, on-chain data, and capital flows.

Short-term perspective: The market needs to digest the pressure from Bitcoin adjustments, but the logic of altcoin rotation remains unchanged. As long as the main cryptocurrencies hold steady, other coins still have opportunities.

Medium-term perspective: Global compliant capital will continue to flow in. The growth in emerging markets like Germany and Canada will become the core driving force in 2025.

Operational level: When facing declines, don’t rush to withdraw everything. Continue dollar-cost averaging into fundamentally solid and regulation-friendly assets, while maintaining flexibility in your positions to allow for adjustments.

Finally, I want to say: Bull markets always advance amid disagreements. Data itself won't deceive you, but understanding the structure behind the data requires patience and insight.