The current Ethereum price may be at the calmest moment before the storm.

Looking at the candlestick chart makes it clear—Bollinger Bands are tightly squeezed, with the upper band at 3194 and the lower band at 3116. The price is hovering around 3170, oscillating up and down. It seems like sideways trading, but in fact, it's accumulating energy. The MACD's DIF and DEA are about to converge, with the histogram shrinking below the zero line. This is a typical sign of a bullish-bearish standoff about to break.

The key question is: which side will break? My judgment is very firm: the probability of an upward move exceeds 70%.

**The most honest insights are on the chain.** Recently, whale addresses have been quietly increasing their positions. The Ethereum holdings on exchanges have hit a new low for the year. What does this mean? Large investors are hoarding coins, and the chips held by retail investors are becoming increasingly scarce. Looking at the main Layer 2 chains, the staked contract lock-up volume has increased by 15% in just one week. This is not a small move; it's real gold and silver fuel.

**The undercurrents in the news are also surging.** Next week, Ethereum core developers will hold a meeting, and the progress of the Cancun upgrade testnet may accelerate. Additionally, Wall Street institutions submitted new ETF application materials last week. From the recent actions of the SEC, there are signs of a noticeable softening attitude. These details are mostly invisible to retail investors.

Technical convergence, on-chain accumulation, and latent positive signals have all aligned. The market is at a critical point. My approach is: open long positions around 3170, with a stop-loss below 3150. First, see if it can break through 3220. If it stabilizes, add to the position and aim for 3280. If the big players dare to dump, don’t be afraid—below 3120, add to your position blindly. If it drops below this level, it’s a free gain on chips.