Gold in 2025: Will the Price Rise in the Coming Days? Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

The Bullish Momentum Persists: Gold Trades Near All-Time Highs

At the end of 2025, gold maintains its structural strength with prices in the range of $4,300-$4,350/oz, consolidating positions that reflect ongoing appetite for safe-haven assets. The precious metal has demonstrated resilience against macroeconomic volatility, supported by a combination of factors that transcend the typical short-term market cycles. This performance contrasts notably with the initial scenarios of 2025, when many analysts questioned whether gold could sustain its upward traction.

Will Gold Rise in the Coming Days? Technical and Fundamental Perspectives

The question many investors ask is whether gold will continue its ascent or enter a consolidation phase. Looking toward the first weeks of January, the dynamics suggest more contained technical movements rather than explosive ones. The typical volume reduction during holiday periods and the elevated price levels point to a scenario where the metal could fluctuate within defined margins, with a slightly positive bias supported by solid structural fundamentals.

Key technical levels to watch:

• Main resistance: 4,400-4,450 $/oz
• Critical support: 4,200-4,250 $/oz
• Extended target: 4,500 $/oz

The RSI indicator at elevated levels warns of possible short-term buying fatigue, although Bollinger Bands remain wide, indicating potential volatility available in both directions.

The True Catalysts of the 2025 Gold Rally

Contrary to simplified narratives, gold’s performance does not respond to a single factor. Throughout most of 2025, the metal has navigated three simultaneous currents:

Flexible Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve has maintained an accommodative stance with expectations of rate cuts supporting non-yielding assets like gold. This environment weakens the dollar, improving the metal’s competitiveness for holders of other currencies.

Strategic Central Bank Purchases: More than a third of global monetary entities plan to increase gold reserves this year. China, Poland, and emerging economies have intensified acquisitions, providing structural demand independent of speculative cycles.

Geopolitical and Trade Uncertainty: Recurring tariff tensions, escalations in the Middle East, and diplomatic instability have sustained the “safe asset” premium of gold, allowing it to coexist with rallies in stocks and cryptocurrencies—an unprecedented phenomenon in previous cycles.

Gold’s Journey Since the Beginning of the Year: From 2,717 to 4,350 Dollars

Gold’s journey in 2025 reflects a material transformation in risk perceptions. By mid-January, the metal hovered around $2,670/oz, pressured by dollar strength following solid employment data. By March, it had broken the psychological barrier of $3,000/oz, driven by corrections in stock markets and intensified trade tensions.

The second quarter saw technical consolidations interspersed with bullish attempts. When measures of trade détente between Washington and Beijing emerged in May, gold corrected to $3,174/oz. However, momentum restarted as moderate inflation signals combined with expectations of monetary easing redefined investor calculations.

The third and fourth quarters accelerated the rise, with the metal successively breaking through $3,500, $4,000, and finally consolidating above $4,300/oz toward the end of the year.

Performance Comparison: Gold Outperforms Stock Indices

Throughout 2024 and into 2025, gold has generated cumulative returns of 40% over twelve months, outperforming the S&P 500 (34%) and Nasdaq-100 (33%) in the same period. This metric underscores a transformation in institutional portfolio allocations, where investors diversify away from traditional equities.

Analyst Forecasts for 2025: Moderate Bullish Consensus

Goldman Sachs projects $2,973/oz, citing a historical rise of up to 10% after initial Fed rate cuts. Bank of America estimates $2,750/oz supported by monetary easing, central bank purchases, and geopolitical instability. JPMorgan suggests $2,775/oz conditioned on demand from China and retail ETF flows. UBS raises its target to $2,973/oz driven by policy cuts and official acquisitions.

Although these projections were made months ago, they have lagged behind current levels, highlighting an upside potential not fully priced in by initial consensus.

Factors to Watch in the Coming Weeks

Central Bank Meetings: Decisions by the ECB and Fed on interest rates will remain critical catalysts. Any sign of acceleration in easing would favor gold.

Macroeconomic Data: Inflation and employment reports in the US, Europe, and Asia will determine expectations about the trajectory of interest rates.

Geopolitical Dynamics: Developments in trade tensions and regional conflicts will keep safe-haven demand active.

Dollar Strength: Movements in the US dollar will continue to exert inverse pressure on gold prices.

Ways to Invest in Gold in the Current Context

For investors seeking exposure to gold’s movement without the complexities of physical storage, there are alternatives:

Derivatives Instruments (CFD): Allow speculation on price without physical possession, with leverage available. They offer flexibility to profit in bullish and bearish markets.

ETFs (ETF): Provide indirect exposure through diversified baskets, ideal for long-term portfolios.

Mining Stocks: An alternative for investors looking for exposure linked to gold price trends but with additional operational risk.

Conclusion: Technical Consolidation with a Bullish Bias in 2025

Gold has fulfilled its historic role as a safe-haven asset in 2025, combining structural defensiveness with appeal as a technical speculation. Although short-term movements may show corrections due to technical fatigue, the underlying fundamentals—monetary easing, official purchases, geopolitical instability—maintain a bullish bias.

In the coming days and weeks, investors should remain attentive to a breakout above resistance at 4,400-4,450 $/oz as a confirmation of continued upward movement, or declines below support at 4,200-4,250 $/oz as a sign of deeper technical pullback. The contained volatility and moderate volume typical of year-end suggest the market is awaiting macro catalysts before clearly defining the direction in January.